NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	111		Excitement	8.4 [217]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +15.4%
Denver Nuggets	115		Comeback	1.9 [699]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -29.7%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Walton	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.01	-0.01	13	68%	0.13	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Bynum	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.03	0.01	8	84%	0.17	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Maurice Evans	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.01	5	58%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Lamar Odom	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.02	8	64%	0.08	1	-0.03	12	67%	-0.08
Sasha Vujacic	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Farmar	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cook	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0	0.04	-0.04	0.01	8	56%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ronny Turiaf	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	9	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Smush Parker	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	9	33%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.30	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17,-0.29,-0.29,-0.31,-0.3	-0.18	-0.13	-0.01	30	35%	-0.17	4	-0.12	5	80%	-0.04

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.05	0.01	19	61%	0.22	3	-0.07	16	87%	0.06
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.1	0.10	-0.02	0.13	0.00	1	80%	0.19	4	-0.09	8	75%	0.02
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	0.00	4	87%	0.12	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.12	-0.07	-0.00	9	81%	0.08	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	53%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.08,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.03	0.00	7	50%	0.10	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	9	15%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Allen Iverson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.10	-0.04	22	45%	-0.08	5	-0.08	9	78%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.5	32.0	15.8	29.1	2.4	40.5	149.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL -6.1%

DEN +38.3%

DEN +23.6%

LAL -12.1%

DEN +6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DEN	NBA	LAL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.3	13.8	15.4	112.1	116.2	104.5
season	15.3	14.0		106.3	105.8
opponent	15.3	14.9		104.5	107.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	16.9	15.1	13.6	15.5	15.3
DEN	12.4	13.2	14.6	15.1	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Bynum	40	41	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.19	8	-12	20	14.9	15.6	-0.66	13.8	13.8	0.01
Maurice Evans	31	30	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.04	0	-4	4	16.4	14.8	1.59	14.5	13.5	0.96
Brian Cook	30	27	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-10	16	14.7	15.5	-0.80	15.7	13.1	2.67
Jordan Farmar	6	6	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	1	-6	13.7	15.4	-1.73	16.5	13.6	2.88
Sasha Vujacic	46	46	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.39	9	-13	22	15.2	15.3	-0.10	13.8	13.8	-0.03
Ronny Turiaf	48	47	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.02	-7	3	-10	16.5	14.1	2.42	14.1	13.5	0.59
Smush Parker	52	52	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	8	-20	15.7	14.9	0.76	13.0	14.7	-1.64
Kobe Bryant	94	94	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.39	0	-4	4	15.2	16.6	-1.38	14.1	8.8	5.26
Lamar Odom	75	77	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.37	-9	5	-14	14.8	16.7	-1.87	13.4	15.1	-1.72
Luke Walton	73	75	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.42	-10	6	-16	14.9	16.3	-1.43	13.0	16.2	-3.18

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	38	39	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.40	13	-9	22	13.0	14.3	-1.34	16.3	14.7	1.59
Allen Iverson	93	93	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.31	8	-4	12	13.9	12.8	1.03	15.7	9.2	6.52
Eduardo Najera	58	58	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.08	10	-6	16	13.2	14.6	-1.34	14.7	16.1	-1.33
Carmelo Anthony	80	80	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.36	0	4	-4	14.0	13.0	0.99	14.8	17.2	-2.31
Marcus Camby	81	80	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.36	0	4	-4	13.9	13.4	0.50	15.0	16.4	-1.40
Linas Kleiza	53	53	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.55	-8	12	-20	13.3	14.3	-0.99	15.5	15.1	0.43
Steve Blake	53	54	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.10	7	-3	10	13.9	13.7	0.15	15.2	15.4	-0.16
J.R. Smith	39	38	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.06	-10	14	-24	15.2	12.9	2.36	15.5	15.2	0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.58,0.65,0.86,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.9,0.95,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.67,0.47,0.71,0.43,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 97, UTA 101	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.91,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.67,0.73,1	91.8%
GSW 85, MIN 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.78,0.69,0.76,0.83,0.78,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.6,0.71,0.54,0.45,0.72,0.45,0.58,1	90.9%
NYK 71, PHI 80	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.88,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.99,1	90.6%