NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	81		Excitement	7.4 [366]		MVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): +33.6%
Chicago Bulls	83		Comeback	2.5 [673]		LVP	Carlos Delfino (DET): -16.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.13	0.06	0.09	0.02	20	59%	0.21	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.03	-0.02	16	59%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.06	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Dale Davis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.04
Ronald Murray	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	3	12%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.13	-0.14	-0.01	-0.02	16	31%	-0.12	1	-0.00	7	86%	0.03
Carlos Delfino	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.17	-0.03	-0.14	0.00	7	50%	-0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.34	0.34	-0.00	0.33	-0.01	14	45%	0.38	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.01	0.11	-0.01	19	51%	0.17	2	-0.06	11	73%	0.03
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	9	59%	0.12	3	-0.13	4	75%	-0.00
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	5	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	18	40%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	9	30%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.7	3.4	26.4	19.4	26.5	2.7	40.1	148.2
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET -9.2%

CHI +34.9%

CHI +20.6%

DET -4.8%

CHI +8.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CHI	NBA	DET	CHI	NBA
this game	18.4	16.3	15.4	97.6	100.0	104.5
season	16.8	14.5		106.1	103.1
opponent	15.9	15.7		98.1	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.7	17.0	18.7	18.1	18.4
CHI	14.6	17.3	15.6	17.9	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Maxiell	38	36	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.13	-5	3	-8	18.5	18.3	0.18	17.6	15.3	2.32
Dale Davis	2	2	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.05	-2	0	-2	23.5	18.2	5.25	1.5	16.7	-15.19
Antonio McDyess	54	56	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.59	14	-16	30	17.4	20.2	-2.77	17.2	14.4	2.84
Ronald Murray	43	45	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.04	-6	4	-10	19.3	17.4	1.88	17.3	15.1	2.20
Lindsey Hunter	17	17	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.03	-7	5	-12	19.9	18.0	1.97	14.5	16.8	-2.33
Carlos Delfino	44	44	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.60	12	-14	26	16.5	20.4	-3.89	17.6	14.9	2.65
Chauncey Billups	71	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.23	-5	3	-8	18.4	18.1	0.34	16.1	17.3	-1.16
Tayshaun Prince	74	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.42	0	-2	2	18.5	17.1	1.42	15.6	22.4	-6.86
Rasheed Wallace	72	72	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.37	-11	9	-20	18.9	14.9	3.99	15.4	22.6	-7.28

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	76	76	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.40	7	-5	12	16.6	13.9	2.70	18.4	18.4	-0.06
Luol Deng	74	75	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.40	7	-5	12	15.6	22.3	-6.74	18.9	13.9	4.98
Tyrus Thomas	49	48	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.44	1	1	0	15.1	18.0	-2.89	18.2	18.6	-0.39
Ben Gordon	63	65	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.23	7	-5	12	16.4	16.1	0.23	18.6	17.6	1.04
Kirk Hinrich	68	70	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.31	0	2	-2	16.6	15.3	1.29	18.3	19.0	-0.74
Chris Duhon	35	31	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.35	-3	5	-8	15.8	16.7	-0.96	18.2	18.5	-0.34
P.J. Brown	34	35	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	3	-4	16.2	16.4	-0.20	19.5	17.6	1.92
Malik Allen	7	7	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	5	-8	22.7	15.7	6.98	14.0	18.8	-4.78
Adrian Griffin	9	8	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	7	-12	22.3	15.6	6.74	13.9	18.9	-4.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.82,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.9,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 86, PHI 102	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.49,0.37,0.42,0.28,0.39,0.39,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.0%
CHI 87, WAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.3,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.35,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.7,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.0%
CHA 92, DEN 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.65,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.29,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.77,0.79,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1	92.3%