NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	93		Excitement	7.0 [452]		MVP	Josh Smith (ATL): +26.7%
Atlanta Hawks	99		Comeback	4.4 [227]		LVP	Anthony Johnson (ATL): -6.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.04	0.02	23	63%	0.20	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Ricky Davis	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.12,0.08	0.10	-0.02	0.01	11	73%	0.15	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.04
Craig Smith	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	3	70%	0.11	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Troy Hudson	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.03	-0.05	0.06	-0.03	11	45%	0.10	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Mark Madsen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03
Rashad McCants	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Randy Foye	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	42%	0.04	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.27	0.27	0.19	0.11	0.03	15	86%	0.40	5	-0.13	7	86%	0.03
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	11	64%	0.15	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Salim Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.10	-0.01	8	50%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.07	-0.01	10	48%	0.08	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.03
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.00	11	62%	0.12	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	9	53%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Solomon Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	8	22%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.5	28.3	13.6	30.2	0.2	33.2	136.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +9.7%

ATL +11.4%

ATL +10.6%

ATL +7.5%

ATL +10.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	ATL	NBA	MIN	ATL	NBA
this game	15.5	16.7	15.4	104.5	110.0	104.5
season	15.4	16.1		101.9	101.1
opponent	15.3	15.6		106.1	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.6	15.1	14.9	17.5	15.5
ATL	17.5	16.8	16.4	16.0	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Madsen	9	9	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.02	7	-13	20	15.1	15.5	-0.41	18.1	16.5	1.58
Rashad McCants	21	21	0.13	-0.63	0.75	0.01	4	-10	14	18.0	14.7	3.29	17.1	16.6	0.53
Randy Foye	36	35	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.30	9	-15	24	17.8	13.9	3.85	17.3	16.3	0.93
Mike James	25	26	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-4	2	17.2	14.8	2.39	17.3	16.4	0.87
Craig Smith	50	52	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.44	7	-13	20	16.2	14.6	1.64	16.9	16.4	0.46
Mark Blount	39	38	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	7	-20	14.6	16.2	-1.64	16.4	16.9	-0.46
Troy Hudson	45	47	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	5	-16	13.8	17.2	-3.49	16.5	16.9	-0.46
Marko Jaric	72	72	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.18	-8	2	-10	14.8	18.3	-3.47	16.3	18.1	-1.78
Ricky Davis	68	69	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.33	-10	4	-14	14.7	18.0	-3.29	16.6	17.1	-0.53
Kevin Garnett	80	81	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.30	-13	7	-20	15.5	15.1	0.41	16.5	18.1	-1.58

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Childress	72	71	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.25	19	-13	32	16.1	19.2	-3.17	14.7	18.5	-3.78
Marvin Williams	75	74	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.36	15	-9	24	16.3	18.7	-2.45	15.3	16.4	-1.10
Josh Smith	76	75	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.27	18	-12	30	16.4	18.1	-1.64	15.5	15.6	-0.19
Anthony Johnson	56	53	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.40	10	-4	14	16.7	16.6	0.11	14.5	16.9	-2.41
Salim Stoudamire	28	29	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.45	-6	12	-18	18.1	16.0	2.06	17.1	14.7	2.40
Solomon Jones	7	8	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	7	-8	18.3	16.6	1.73	18.6	15.2	3.45
Zaza Pachulia	68	66	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.16	2	4	-2	16.6	16.8	-0.17	14.9	17.0	-2.10
Tyronn Lue	38	39	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	-0.06	-8	14	-22	16.6	16.7	-0.14	16.5	14.7	1.88
Shelden Williams	30	30	-0.49	0.99	-1.48	0.07	-19	25	-44	18.3	15.9	2.42	17.0	14.7	2.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.6,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.44,0.34,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.22,0.21,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.61,0.69,0.84,0.94,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 92, POR 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.66,0.6,0.7,0.78,0.77,0.92,1	91.9%
NJN 93, POR 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.3,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.37,0.31,0.22,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.46,0.67,0.74,0.84,0.97,0.95,1	90.9%
NJN 104, CHH 116	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.1,0.17,0.28,0.41,0.59,0.66,0.81,0.89,0.99,1,1	90.8%