NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	98		Excitement	7.6 [332]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +43.6%
Dallas Mavericks	103		Comeback	3.3 [765]		LVP	Darko Milicic (ORL): -20.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.23	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.2,0.23,0.23	0.12	0.12	0.01	14	64%	0.25	1	-0.02	11	64%	-0.00
Trevor Ariza	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.05	0.09	-0.00	8	58%	0.22	1	-0.08	3	33%	-0.04
Carlos Arroyo	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	-0.00	7	71%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	4	70%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jameer Nelson	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.00	7	89%	0.32	5	-0.22	5	100%	0.07
JJ Redick	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0,0,0	0.06	-0.05	0.02	14	63%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Keyon Dooling	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.06	-0.03	7	0%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2	-0.09	-0.12	0.00	11	29%	-0.11	1	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.44,0.44	0.44	0.20	0.23	0.00	17	78%	0.48	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.03
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.35	0.35	0.11	0.24	0.00	18	62%	0.37	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.09	0.00	14	57%	0.24	2	-0.10	9	78%	0.01
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.07	0.00	3	83%	0.15	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	0.01	5	73%	0.12	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.00	3	100%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
DeSagana Diop	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	8	19%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.3	28.4	16.0	26.5	2.0	35.2	136.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +61.9%

ORL -11.7%

ORL -20.0%

DAL +26.3%

ORL -6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DAL	NBA	ORL	DAL	NBA
this game	18.7	16.0	15.4	118.1	124.1	104.5
season	15.9	16.3		103.4	108.7
opponent	15.2	15.7		102.3	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.6	19.0	18.1	20.7	18.7
DAL	13.7	15.3	17.0	18.3	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	9	9	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.06	7	-12	19	16.9	19.0	-2.07	13.9	16.2	-2.33
Carlos Arroyo	29	27	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.01	5	-10	15	20.6	17.7	2.85	18.3	14.9	3.40
Trevor Ariza	37	36	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.17	10	-15	25	19.8	17.8	1.99	16.7	15.4	1.34
Keyon Dooling	21	22	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.02	3	-8	11	22.1	17.6	4.56	18.9	14.9	3.95
Pat Garrity	7	6	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.01	2	-7	9	19.1	18.7	0.45	13.5	16.2	-2.66
Hedo Turkoglu	71	70	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.21	-7	2	-9	18.4	21.0	-2.65	15.5	18.7	-3.24
Darko Milicic	63	65	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.25	-9	4	-13	19.0	18.0	0.97	16.7	13.4	3.29
Jameer Nelson	54	56	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.34	-10	5	-15	17.7	20.6	-2.85	14.9	18.3	-3.40
Keith Bogans	53	52	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.27	-15	10	-25	17.7	20.6	-2.87	15.1	17.4	-2.32
Dwight Howard	71	72	-0.75	0.25	-0.99	-0.42	-11	6	-17	18.3	21.3	-3.04	15.6	18.1	-2.45

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	56	56	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.36	14	-9	23	16.2	15.5	0.71	19.1	18.0	1.09
Josh Howard	73	74	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.28	12	-7	19	15.7	18.1	-2.43	18.6	19.6	-0.92
Jason Terry	71	69	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.44	6	-1	7	16.5	13.0	3.46	18.7	18.9	-0.23
Dirk Nowitzki	64	62	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.23	7	-2	9	16.6	13.8	2.82	18.5	19.3	-0.74
Jerry Stackhouse	44	44	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.36	0	5	-5	17.0	14.8	2.16	19.4	18.0	1.39
DeSagana Diop	24	25	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	5	-5	15.1	16.3	-1.18	18.4	18.9	-0.48
Greg Buckner	23	23	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.01	2	3	-1	15.6	16.1	-0.55	18.7	18.8	-0.11
Devin Harris	38	39	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.03	-5	10	-15	14.7	17.1	-2.41	18.3	19.1	-0.81
Austin Croshere	22	23	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	0.02	-11	16	-27	14.4	16.5	-2.12	18.7	18.7	0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.46,0.54,0.68,0.79,0.68,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 71, PHI 77	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.53,0.46,0.53,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.84,1	93.6%
GSW 106, SAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.6,0.56,0.68,0.54,0.62,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.67,0.75,0.9,0.84,0.84,1	92.3%
POR 60, NJN 64	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.54,0.33,0.53,0.89,0.91,0.98,1	91.6%