NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	82		Excitement	7.2 [405]		MVP	Shaquille O'Neal (MIA): +32.4%
Miami Heat	85		Comeback	3.6 [271]		LVP	Jason Kapono (MIA): -16.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.28	0.13	0.15	0.01	9	77%	0.27	0	0.00	4	75%	0.06
Ronald Dupree	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	8	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Lindsey Hunter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Nazr Mohammed	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Delfino	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,-0.07,-0.07	0.08	-0.10	0.05	16	67%	0.15	3	-0.21	1	100%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.06,-0.09	-0.15	0.04	-0.02	14	26%	-0.06	2	-0.03	6	83%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	22	40%	-0.06	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.32	0.32	0.11	0.21	-0.00	16	67%	0.42	3	-0.09	14	50%	-0.02
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.36,0.23	0.23	0.06	0.17	-0.00	14	69%	0.37	5	-0.14	4	75%	0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	9	56%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	9	45%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.07	-0.02	10	23%	-0.13	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	7	14%	-0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	3.8	32.2	18.8	28.6	3.0	40.0	152.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +53.3%

DET -12.8%

MIA +2.9%

MIA +1.3%

MIA +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	16.8	16.1	15.4	93.2	97.7	104.5
season	16.8	16.0		106.1	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.7		104.3	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.7	17.8	15.4	15.4	16.8
MIA	14.0	18.2	18.1	14.6	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronald Dupree	1	1	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-3	3	6.0	16.9	-10.89	2.0	16.3	-14.31
Jason Maxiell	12	10	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.06	-3	0	-3	18.2	16.5	1.72	15.6	16.2	-0.62
Dale Davis	19	20	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-2	1	16.7	16.8	-0.03	16.2	16.1	0.13
Nazr Mohammed	18	17	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	2	-7	17.4	16.6	0.86	17.0	15.9	1.06
Lindsey Hunter	20	19	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.03	-7	4	-11	18.3	16.3	2.06	14.9	16.5	-1.61
Carlos Delfino	18	17	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.07	-9	6	-15	19.9	16.0	3.93	16.6	16.0	0.55
Richard Hamilton	74	74	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.47	7	-10	17	16.3	19.0	-2.66	16.3	15.2	1.08
Antonio McDyess	50	49	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.41	4	-7	11	16.7	16.8	-0.05	16.1	16.2	-0.11
Chauncey Billups	71	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.40	0	-3	3	16.3	18.9	-2.63	16.1	16.4	-0.35
Chris Webber	75	76	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.49	1	-4	5	16.7	17.3	-0.64	16.4	14.4	2.04
Tayshaun Prince	82	81	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.41	-2	-1	-1	16.4	22.0	-5.62	16.1	17.0	-0.91

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	52	52	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.56	8	-5	13	16.1	16.3	-0.23	17.4	15.8	1.66
Shaquille O'Neal	62	62	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.31	10	-7	17	17.0	13.9	3.13	17.5	14.9	2.66
James Posey	58	60	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.30	5	-2	7	16.2	16.1	0.07	16.2	17.9	-1.71
Jason Williams	62	65	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.48	-4	7	-11	15.6	17.5	-1.92	17.2	15.4	1.80
Antoine Walker	59	60	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.28	2	1	1	16.7	14.9	1.80	17.0	16.3	0.65
Gary Payton	35	34	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.02	9	-6	15	16.1	16.2	-0.06	15.9	17.3	-1.38
Udonis Haslem	26	25	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	3	-3	16.0	16.2	-0.21	17.4	16.5	0.89
Alonzo Mourning	25	25	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.13	-8	11	-19	13.9	17.0	-3.13	15.2	17.4	-2.13
Jason Kapono	58	59	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.04	-7	10	-17	15.8	16.9	-1.12	15.7	18.9	-3.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.72,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.76,0.72,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.69,0.54,0.32,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 80, HOU 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.71,0.83,0.69,0.55,0.57,0.82,1	91.8%
SAS 106, PHI 112	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.73,0.77,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.9,0.8,0.85,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.78,0.7,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.86,0.85,0.69,0.76,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.43,0.9,1	90.9%
SAC 114, ORL 119	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.72,0.7,0.8,0.79,0.88,0.93,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.8,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.6,0.78,0.86,0.71,0.55,0.84,1	90.7%