NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	114		Excitement	8.7 [165]		MVP	Channing Frye (ORL): +37.2%
Orlando Magic	119		Comeback	2.0 [482]		LVP	Andre Miller (SAC): -15.5%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.2,0.2,0.25	0.16	0.12	0.02	26	68%	0.41	5	-0.15	5	80%	0.02
Omri Casspi	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.11,-0.11,0.25	0.03	0.22	0.00	8	48%	0.25	0	0.00	9	78%	0.14
Nik Stauskas	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.05	0.01	3	87%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0	0.12	-0.12	0.00	18	58%	0.04	1	-0.05	14	79%	0.01
Jason Thompson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.01	3	62%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Ben McLemore	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	5	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ray McCallum	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.06	0.02	10	50%	0.00	2	-0.10	6	67%	-0.00
Andre Miller	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	8	19%	-0.08	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.32,0.37	0.37	0.20	0.17	-0.00	11	92%	0.39	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Tobias Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.34	0.34	0.04	0.31	0.02	15	54%	0.39	1	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.06	-0.00	8	75%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.02	0.02	24	64%	0.19	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	100%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	11	58%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.07,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10	48%	0.07	1	-0.07	1	0%	-0.03
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.3	29.5	15.4	22.4	2.5	47.2	144.5
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +120.9%

SAC -59.7%

SAC -19.4%

ORL +4.9%

ORL +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	ORL	NBA	SAC	ORL	NBA
this game	15.3	15.7	15.1	120.0	130.8	104.2
season	14.9	14.9		103.7	100.4
opponent	15.3	14.8		105.9	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	18.1	17.0	13.3	13.1	15.3
ORL	16.1	13.5	17.4	15.7	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nik Stauskas	29	28	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.01	3	-8	11	13.9	15.9	-2.03	16.5	15.3	1.25
Reggie Evans	10	9	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.05	3	-8	11	14.5	15.4	-0.90	18.1	15.4	2.71
Omri Casspi	55	52	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.25	6	-11	17	13.1	18.3	-5.26	16.1	15.2	0.90
Andre Miller	47	45	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.32	6	-11	17	13.5	17.1	-3.59	16.4	15.0	1.44
Jason Thompson	46	45	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.13	-1	-4	3	16.5	14.2	2.23	16.2	15.2	1.05
Derrick Williams	26	24	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	0	-5	16.6	14.8	1.80	14.5	16.1	-1.65
Ben McLemore	38	38	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	6	-17	18.5	13.2	5.32	15.2	16.0	-0.83
Rudy Gay	84	79	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.30	-5	0	-5	15.1	16.5	-1.40	15.9	14.1	1.83
DeMarcus Cousins	77	74	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.34	-8	3	-11	15.6	14.1	1.47	14.9	19.1	-4.17
Ray McCallum	63	61	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.35	-13	8	-21	15.9	14.1	1.87	15.1	16.9	-1.83

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Channing Frye	68	73	0.99	-0.49	1.48	0.35	22	-17	39	14.6	18.8	-4.16	16.2	12.5	3.71
Victor Oladipo	76	78	0.69	-0.18	0.87	0.30	13	-8	21	15.8	14.9	0.88	15.5	14.5	0.94
Tobias Harris	70	73	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.30	10	-5	15	15.9	15.0	0.93	15.0	16.4	-1.38
Elfrid Payton	81	84	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.43	3	2	1	15.3	18.4	-3.07	15.7	12.5	3.22
Dewayne Dedmon	45	47	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.22	7	-2	9	15.4	16.0	-0.58	15.5	15.1	0.45
Andrew Nicholson	46	49	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.18	-10	15	-25	16.3	15.0	1.28	14.4	16.3	-1.89
Ben Gordon	25	28	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	-0.03	-4	9	-13	16.3	15.4	0.90	13.7	16.0	-2.26
Kyle O'Quinn	20	21	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.13	-10	15	-25	17.5	15.1	2.41	12.0	16.2	-4.18
Aaron Gordon	26	25	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.12	-5	10	-15	14.6	16.1	-1.53	16.2	15.0	1.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.72,0.7,0.8,0.79,0.88,0.93,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.8,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.6,0.78,0.86,0.71,0.55,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 93, HOU 95	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.78,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.86,0.87,0.81,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.76,0.9,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.64,0.57,0.73,1	92.4%
MIA 93, MIN 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.92,0.85,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.71,0.82,1	92.1%
LAL 97, IND 103	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.9,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.78,0.64,0.77,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.81,0.84,0.77,0.84,1	92.0%