NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	97		Excitement	7.1 [420]		MVP	Luther Head (HOU): +24.6%
Orlando Magic	93		Comeback	1.0 [836]		LVP	Bonzi Wells (HOU): -18.7%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luther Head	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.25,0.25	0.09	0.15	-0.01	8	83%	0.30	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	0.21	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21	0.14	0.07	0.00	11	77%	0.24	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.02
Tracy McGrady	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.12	0.03	0.08	-0.02	20	59%	0.30	7	-0.17	18	83%	0.03
Shane Battier	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.00	0.02	10	64%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jake Tsakalidis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Snyder	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.01	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.13	-0.01	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.17	-0.05	-0.03	11	32%	-0.08	5	-0.10	6	50%	-0.06

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	5	64%	0.10	1	-0.02	12	83%	0.04
Grant Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	15	55%	0.13	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.03
Bo Outlaw	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	4	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	6	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	12	44%	-0.00	2	-0.06	3	33%	-0.02
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	9	40%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	11	35%	-0.05	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	14	50%	0.04	4	-0.16	8	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.5	32.3	15.8	27.4	3.3	47.5	155.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +77.2%

ORL -7.8%

ORL -10.1%

ORL -6.2%

ORL -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	ORL	NBA	HOU	ORL	NBA
this game	15.6	17.0	15.4	111.5	103.3	104.5
season	15.6	15.9		103.6	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.7		103.0	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.3	16.7	16.0	13.5	15.6
ORL	16.5	18.4	15.4	17.8	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luther Head	43	44	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.32	4	0	4	15.4	15.7	-0.24	18.0	16.0	1.95
Shane Battier	73	74	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.37	2	2	0	15.1	18.1	-2.99	17.4	14.8	2.61
Rafer Alston	66	69	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.22	7	-3	10	15.6	15.4	0.18	16.3	19.2	-2.92
Charles Hayes	34	36	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.35	-2	6	-8	16.7	14.8	1.83	16.9	17.0	-0.16
Juwan Howard	54	56	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.05	10	-6	16	16.3	14.3	1.98	16.7	17.4	-0.69
Jake Tsakalidis	16	17	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.00	8	-4	12	15.0	15.7	-0.69	15.5	17.3	-1.76
Bonzi Wells	44	46	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.28	-3	7	-10	16.3	14.8	1.48	18.2	15.7	2.54
Tracy McGrady	65	66	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.28	-5	9	-14	15.3	16.3	-0.95	16.4	18.5	-2.11
Dikembe Mutombo	39	40	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	4	-4	14.7	16.3	-1.63	17.1	16.8	0.30
Kirk Snyder	1	2	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.08	-1	5	-6	2.0	15.7	-13.72	9.0	17.1	-8.14

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Bogans	28	25	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.06	0	-4	4	14.4	18.1	-3.77	17.2	14.9	2.30
Carlos Arroyo	24	23	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.20	3	-7	10	20.8	15.5	5.29	15.6	15.5	0.06
Bo Outlaw	3	3	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	1	-6	12.0	17.1	-5.13	13.0	15.7	-2.65
Trevor Ariza	37	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.34	7	-11	18	17.8	16.4	1.36	15.8	15.4	0.37
Keyon Dooling	22	22	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-5	6	20.9	15.7	5.17	15.3	15.7	-0.39
Darko Milicic	60	59	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-1	-2	17.2	16.5	0.63	16.4	13.9	2.46
Hedo Turkoglu	63	60	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.26	-1	-3	2	16.3	18.5	-2.23	15.3	16.0	-0.69
Jameer Nelson	66	64	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	3	-10	15.5	20.8	-5.29	15.5	15.6	-0.06
Dwight Howard	81	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	2	-8	16.2	23.3	-7.09	15.3	17.3	-1.96
Grant Hill	66	66	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.32	-9	5	-14	17.8	14.5	3.35	14.8	18.0	-3.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.24,0.23,0.15,0.19,0.14,0.2,0.26,0.16,0.24,0.26,0.4,0.26,0.16,0.25,0.17,0.09,0.21,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 95, PHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.23,0.26,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0	93.7%
ATL 98, ORL 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.22,0.32,0.26,0.2,0.33,0.24,0.19,0.26,0.19,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.01,0,0	93.5%
IND 91, NJN 83	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.22,0.28,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.2,0.16,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.01,0	93.5%