NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	110		Excitement	2.5 [1249]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +6.5%
Washington Wizards	83		Comeback	1.0 [1068]		LVP	Jarvis Hayes (WAS): -4.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.03	15	62%	0.10	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	7	64%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	16	59%	0.07	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	7	67%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.15	0.00	0.10	8	100%	0.08	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	6	83%	0.03	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	5	40%	0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	6	64%	0.04	3	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	5	44%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Eric Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donell Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	57%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.04	3	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.03	24	51%	0.03	3	-0.04	9	89%	0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	18	41%	-0.01	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.10	0.00	-0.07	11	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	-0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	6	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	8	28%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.8	27.2	15.3	26.5	2.5	28.6	126.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +54.6%

WAS -3.2%

WAS -6.1%

SAS +3.7%

SAS +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	WAS	NBA	SAS	WAS	NBA
this game	16.7	15.9	15.4	125.0	93.3	104.5
season	16.2	14.8		107.5	107.8
opponent	15.3	15.4		108.7	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.8	13.7	20.0	17.6	16.7
WAS	15.5	16.8	13.6	17.5	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	53	53	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.06	15	12	3	16.2	17.4	-1.17	15.3	16.7	-1.46
Brent Barry	48	47	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.20	19	8	11	17.3	16.0	1.32	15.5	16.3	-0.82
Francisco Elson	50	50	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.25	20	7	13	16.0	17.6	-1.61	16.0	15.7	0.33
Bruce Bowen	46	47	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.03	12	15	-3	16.6	16.8	-0.27	15.4	16.4	-1.00
Robert Horry	27	29	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.41	24	3	21	17.4	16.4	0.98	17.6	15.0	2.57
Tim Duncan	55	55	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	22	-17	16.5	17.1	-0.59	15.0	17.3	-2.33
Michael Finley	34	35	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.26	15	12	3	16.7	16.7	0.07	16.5	15.5	0.99
Manu Ginobili	40	42	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.09	8	19	-11	16.0	17.3	-1.32	16.3	15.5	0.82
Fabricio Oberto	36	37	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.01	5	22	-17	17.4	16.2	1.13	15.6	16.0	-0.44
Jacque Vaughn	35	36	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.24	12	15	-3	17.4	16.2	1.17	16.7	15.3	1.46
Eric Williams	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	27	-27	17.2	16.6	0.61	16.0	15.8	0.16
Beno Udrih	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	27	-27	17.2	16.6	0.61	16.0	15.8	0.16

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Roger Mason Jr.	12	12	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.15	-5	-22	17	15.5	15.9	-0.41	16.0	16.8	-0.80
Donell Taylor	13	14	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.15	-5	-22	17	16.0	15.8	0.17	18.5	16.4	2.15
Darius Songaila	23	23	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.02	-2	-25	23	15.8	15.9	-0.04	18.0	16.2	1.83
Calvin Booth	14	14	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-24	21	16.4	15.7	0.68	15.2	17.0	-1.76
Antonio Daniels	31	32	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.18	-13	-14	1	17.7	14.8	2.90	16.4	16.8	-0.40
Andray Blatche	43	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.32	-18	-9	-9	17.1	14.7	2.44	16.3	17.1	-0.75
Etan Thomas	40	39	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.22	-15	-12	-3	17.0	14.9	2.04	17.5	16.0	1.52
Jarvis Hayes	38	39	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	-17	7	14.7	16.7	-2.09	17.1	16.4	0.64
Brendan Haywood	42	41	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.07	-12	-15	3	14.8	16.8	-2.07	15.8	17.5	-1.71
DeShawn Stevenson	46	44	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.03	-9	-18	9	14.7	17.1	-2.44	17.1	16.3	0.75
Caron Butler	67	64	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.16	-21	-6	-15	15.6	16.5	-0.92	16.6	16.8	-0.19
Gilbert Arenas	76	74	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	0.15	-22	-5	-17	15.8	16.0	-0.17	16.4	18.5	-2.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 142, DEN 111	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.18,0.14,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%
MIA 95, NJN 76	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%
MIA 105, CHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%