NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	87		Excitement	6.8 [480]		MVP	Metta World Peace (SAC): +11.7%
Sacramento Kings	94		Comeback	1.5 [989]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -34.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Linas Kleiza	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	71%	0.13	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.05	0.00	6	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	2	40%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	10	59%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Yakhouba Diawara	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	-0.03	0.04	9	72%	0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Nene	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	12	42%	-0.03	4	-0.08	7	43%	-0.05
Marcus Camby	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.14	-0.08	-0.00	9	33%	-0.04	5	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.34	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.26,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34	-0.21	-0.12	0.02	25	36%	-0.15	6	-0.19	6	83%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.01	18	52%	0.12	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Kevin Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.14	0.02	0.05	18	64%	0.13	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.02
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	9	60%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Quincy Douby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	39%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	0.01	-0.01	12	40%	0.03	4	-0.10	1	0%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	16	31%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	6	0%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	1.6	29.2	15.4	23.7	2.5	30.3	128.6
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +8.1%

SAC +0.3%

DEN -8.8%

SAC +47.1%

SAC +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	13.8	14.7	15.4	86.1	93.1	104.5
season	14.0	14.7		105.8	104.7
opponent	15.1	15.3		106.0	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.5	14.2	14.4	13.0	13.8
SAC	14.8	13.5	13.8	17.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	54	54	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.17	6	-13	19	13.5	14.1	-0.57	14.7	14.8	-0.06
DerMarr Johnson	44	44	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-8	9	14.0	13.6	0.47	15.0	14.5	0.51
Yakhouba Diawara	28	29	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-7	7	13.3	14.0	-0.69	14.7	14.8	-0.11
Eduardo Najera	43	41	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.28	8	-15	23	12.7	14.6	-1.89	15.4	14.3	1.11
Reggie Evans	20	20	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-3	-1	13.1	13.9	-0.79	13.0	15.2	-2.16
Marcus Camby	69	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.20	-2	-5	3	14.4	12.4	2.01	14.9	14.4	0.55
Linas Kleiza	42	42	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.11	-6	-1	-5	14.1	13.6	0.54	13.5	15.6	-2.11
Nene	60	60	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.09	-12	5	-17	14.3	13.1	1.19	14.9	14.5	0.45
Steve Blake	61	61	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.29	-12	5	-17	14.0	13.5	0.47	14.6	14.9	-0.24
Carmelo Anthony	84	84	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.28	-14	7	-21	13.5	15.1	-1.54	15.1	12.8	2.37

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	85	84	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.24	16	-9	25	14.8	14.4	0.43	13.5	15.3	-1.82
Brad Miller	59	59	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.17	9	-2	11	14.1	15.6	-1.48	13.4	14.4	-1.03
Mike Bibby	79	78	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.15	7	0	7	14.4	15.9	-1.50	13.6	14.3	-0.73
Kevin Martin	75	77	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.19	3	4	-1	14.2	16.2	-1.97	13.6	14.3	-0.67
Kenny Thomas	40	39	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.02	6	1	5	15.1	14.5	0.57	14.1	13.6	0.48
Francisco Garcia	14	15	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.13	1	6	-5	17.5	14.3	3.21	16.7	13.3	3.39
Corliss Williamson	56	57	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.28	-5	12	-17	14.8	14.6	0.20	13.6	14.0	-0.47
John Salmons	42	41	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.15	-1	8	-9	15.5	14.2	1.27	14.2	13.5	0.74
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	43	43	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	9	-11	15.4	14.2	1.23	14.4	13.3	1.03
Quincy Douby	12	12	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.00	1	6	-5	12.7	15.0	-2.34	12.9	13.9	-0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.44,0.48,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.9,0.93,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 82, UTA 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.82,0.82,0.89,0.81,0.79,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.75,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.87,0.89,0.89,0.99,1,1	93.5%
ATL 97, SAS 99	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.8,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.82,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.83,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.89,0.99,0.99,1	93.5%
HOU 108, CHH 114	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.4,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.88,0.91,0.87,0.74,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.63,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.96,0.97,0.98,1	93.3%