NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	98		Excitement	5.6 [713]		MVP	Earl Boykins (DEN): +21.6%
Denver Nuggets	112		Comeback	1.2 [1178]		LVP	Linas Kleiza (DEN): -13.5%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Wilks	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.01	4	80%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.00	0.03	17	60%	0.09	3	-0.09	9	78%	0.00
Desmon Farmer	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Gelabale	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mouhamed Sene	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Earl Watson	-0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	13	54%	0.06	3	-0.09	2	0%	-0.00
Nick Collison	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	9	33%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	8	61%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	50%	0.00
Andreas Glyniadakis	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	16	44%	-0.01	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Chris Wilcox	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.02	9	41%	-0.06	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.10	0.12	0.00	17	60%	0.22	1	-0.00	6	83%	0.08
Allen Iverson	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.04,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.06	-0.01	29	63%	0.29	9	-0.17	12	75%	0.01
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.04	9	39%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.02	4	112%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Sampson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	8	40%	-0.03	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	6	50%	-0.00	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	3.3	34.0	19.8	32.4	3.4	32.7	149.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +20.6%

DEN +21.2%

DEN +16.0%

DEN +1.2%

SEA -9.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	DEN	NBA	SEA	DEN	NBA
this game	14.4	13.3	15.4	95.1	106.7	104.5
season	15.4	14.0		105.5	105.8
opponent	15.3	15.4		104.5	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	14.8	14.5	15.0	13.4	14.4
DEN	12.9	13.7	12.3	14.3	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Desmon Farmer	5	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-16	18	10.6	14.6	-4.00	18.3	13.0	5.34
Mickael Gelabale	13	14	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-11	8	17.0	14.0	2.97	10.8	13.7	-2.90
Nick Collison	49	49	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	-9	4	14.3	14.5	-0.19	13.4	13.2	0.17
Mike Wilks	34	36	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-11	8	14.6	14.3	0.36	13.5	13.2	0.31
Johan Petro	61	63	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.10	-9	-5	-4	14.8	13.9	0.85	13.1	13.5	-0.42
Mouhamed Sene	21	20	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.24	2	-16	18	11.9	15.1	-3.20	13.7	13.2	0.56
Chris Wilcox	52	54	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.10	-5	-9	4	14.6	14.2	0.38	13.2	13.4	-0.23
Andreas Glyniadakis	18	18	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.03	-10	-4	-6	13.9	14.5	-0.56	13.1	13.3	-0.22
Luke Ridnour	91	92	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.01	-9	-5	-4	14.6	12.6	2.07	13.4	12.8	0.51
Damien Wilkins	91	92	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.16	-10	-4	-6	14.7	12.3	2.35	13.2	13.8	-0.54
Earl Watson	80	81	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.07	-20	6	-26	14.0	15.9	-1.88	13.3	13.1	0.22

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Allen Iverson	93	92	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.09	22	-8	30	13.3	13.1	0.24	14.7	12.0	2.70
Yakhouba Diawara	83	83	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.04	20	-6	26	13.0	14.3	-1.24	15.0	12.0	2.99
DerMarr Johnson	66	63	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	10	-6	13.8	12.4	1.41	13.4	16.0	-2.56
Jamal Sampson	37	37	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.08	8	6	2	13.5	13.2	0.38	14.8	14.2	0.54
Eduardo Najera	74	72	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.14	13	1	12	13.5	12.8	0.74	14.4	14.4	0.03
Earl Boykins	68	67	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.03	8	6	2	13.2	13.5	-0.38	14.3	14.7	-0.40
Linas Kleiza	32	34	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.20	-1	15	-16	11.7	14.0	-2.36	14.2	14.5	-0.30
Reggie Evans	72	67	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.17	-4	18	-22	13.6	12.7	0.92	14.3	14.7	-0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.61,0.58,0.74,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.77,0.71,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.97,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 90, CHI 118	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.54,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.9,0.81,0.88,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
LAL 79, SAS 91	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.77,0.71,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.94,0.95,0.88,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
VAN 98, LAL 116	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.71,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.95,0.91,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%