NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	113		Excitement	8.8 [158]		MVP	Mo Williams (MIL): +33.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	107		Comeback	1.6 [343]		LVP	Mark Blount (MIN): -15.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0.34	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,0.11,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.17,0.29,0.33	0.02	0.30	-0.02	21	54%	0.40	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.05
Charlie Bell	0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.16	0.08	0.00	19	62%	0.24	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Charlie Villanueva	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.06	-0.00	9	45%	0.09	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Steve Blake	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Noel	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08	0.01	-0.08	0.01	25	51%	0.02	2	-0.10	7	71%	-0.04
Andrew Bogut	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	8	39%	-0.04	2	-0.11	2	50%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19	0.19	0.05	0.12	-0.02	15	59%	0.27	3	-0.08	9	78%	0.01
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	4	92%	0.18	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.11,0.17,0.1,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	-0.05	0.00	19	64%	0.10	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.05
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	0.03	18	51%	0.01	3	-0.06	11	73%	-0.08
Mark Blount	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	9	46%	-0.07	3	-0.09	6	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.5	29.5	15.6	24.2	2.3	39.6	140.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +17.8%

MIL +7.8%

MIL +4.2%

MIL +5.2%

MIL +15.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIN	NBA	MIL	MIN	NBA
this game	14.2	14.2	15.4	113.0	103.9	104.5
season	15.2	15.4		105.3	101.9
opponent	15.6	15.5		105.8	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.5	13.3	14.9	13.8	14.2
MIN	12.7	16.7	13.9	13.9	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Skinner	54	56	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.37	12	-6	18	13.7	14.7	-1.07	13.8	14.7	-0.94
Charlie Bell	88	92	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.36	11	-5	16	13.8	16.7	-2.94	14.5	11.6	2.89
Mo Williams	69	70	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.38	9	-3	12	14.2	14.2	-0.00	14.0	14.7	-0.76
Andrew Bogut	81	82	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.41	3	3	0	14.6	12.3	2.28	13.5	16.9	-3.38
Michael Redd	78	80	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.36	4	2	2	14.6	12.7	1.90	14.0	14.9	-0.90
Dan Gadzuric	26	28	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.04	5	1	4	13.8	14.3	-0.53	17.2	13.1	4.07
Steve Blake	32	34	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.06	-3	9	-12	13.7	14.4	-0.60	14.3	14.2	0.16
David Noel	34	34	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.07	-3	9	-12	14.1	14.2	-0.06	13.9	14.4	-0.54
Charlie Villanueva	38	39	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.08	-8	14	-22	14.6	13.9	0.63	14.5	14.0	0.44

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Craig Smith	33	33	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.04	6	-12	18	15.0	13.8	1.16	15.2	13.6	1.62
Randy Foye	14	15	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	-2	-2	15.3	14.0	1.24	13.0	14.4	-1.36
Mark Madsen	9	9	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-3	0	15.7	14.1	1.59	12.3	14.3	-2.01
Trenton Hassell	69	68	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.26	2	-8	10	13.2	16.3	-3.11	14.2	14.1	0.10
Marko Jaric	34	32	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.06	-8	2	-10	16.3	13.2	3.11	14.1	14.2	-0.10
Kevin Garnett	91	88	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.32	-3	-3	0	13.9	16.8	-2.97	14.2	13.9	0.28
Ricky Davis	98	95	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.34	-4	-2	-2	13.9	20.6	-6.71	14.1	14.6	-0.46
Mike James	94	90	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.34	-4	-2	-2	14.4	12.3	2.06	14.4	12.2	2.18
Mark Blount	73	70	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.29	-12	6	-18	14.1	14.5	-0.36	13.8	14.9	-1.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.3,0.46,0.4,0.29,0.37,0.32,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 85, ATL 81	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.46,0.24,0.05,0	93.0%
CLE 86, CHI 81	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.3,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.17,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.15,0.02,0	92.9%
ATL 78, TOR 72	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.67,0.47,0.36,0.59,0.47,0.25,0.28,0.09,0.1,0	92.6%