NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	103		Excitement	4.1 [1004]		MVP	Amar'e Stoudemire (PHX): +12.3%
Orlando Magic	89		Comeback	1.5 [631]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -14.3%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.01	19	58%	0.13	1	-0.00	14	86%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.06	0.02	13	66%	0.13	3	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Raja Bell	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	6	71%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Nash	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	10	72%	0.08	4	-0.05	5	100%	0.02
James Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	4	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	5	46%	0.04	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Kurt Thomas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	13	50%	0.03	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	0.00	0.05	14	61%	0.05	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.03	8	53%	0.05	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	11	45%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.00	0.03	3	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Travis Diener	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	6	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	12	40%	-0.02	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.02
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	9	35%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	11	52%	0.01	6	-0.12	5	40%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.04	5	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.4	27.2	16.8	32.8	1.8	26.3	131.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +31.5%

PHX +15.8%

ORL -6.7%

PHX +7.8%

PHX +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	ORL	NBA	PHX	ORL	NBA
this game	13.7	17.0	15.4	109.6	94.7	104.5
season	13.8	15.9		112.2	103.4
opponent	15.7	16.0		103.0	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	12.6	12.6	11.7	18.4	13.7
ORL	16.7	17.4	17.8	15.9	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Nash	71	71	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.03	18	-4	22	14.0	12.6	1.48	17.3	16.0	1.33
Amar'e Stoudemire	82	82	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.03	16	-2	18	13.7	13.6	0.11	16.7	18.8	-2.15
Shawn Marion	80	81	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.01	16	-2	18	13.6	14.4	-0.79	16.7	18.7	-2.01
Raja Bell	60	59	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.03	16	-2	18	12.0	16.6	-4.60	17.1	16.7	0.43
Boris Diaw	74	72	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.23	3	11	-8	13.9	12.8	1.06	16.4	18.6	-2.19
Leandro Barbosa	38	38	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.06	3	11	-8	12.7	14.4	-1.67	17.6	16.5	1.04
Kurt Thomas	25	27	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.02	4	10	-6	13.3	13.8	-0.49	18.6	16.3	2.29
James Jones	19	19	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.09	-2	16	-18	14.4	13.5	0.86	17.2	16.9	0.32

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bo Outlaw	40	40	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.18	7	-21	28	15.8	17.8	-1.97	15.6	12.3	3.34
Trevor Ariza	49	50	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.15	5	-19	24	16.2	17.8	-1.57	14.7	12.5	2.13
Travis Diener	33	34	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.22	7	-21	28	16.1	17.4	-1.29	16.1	12.3	3.86
Carlos Arroyo	47	47	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.20	6	-20	26	15.7	18.2	-2.51	15.0	12.4	2.60
Darko Milicic	53	52	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.11	-9	-5	-4	17.2	16.6	0.57	13.8	13.5	0.37
Dwight Howard	39	40	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-9	4	17.1	16.8	0.29	13.2	14.1	-0.88
Grant Hill	60	59	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.18	-22	8	-30	17.5	15.9	1.59	12.1	16.4	-4.29
Jameer Nelson	47	47	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.11	-20	6	-26	18.2	15.7	2.51	12.4	15.0	-2.60
Keyon Dooling	55	54	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.04	-18	4	-22	17.1	16.8	0.28	12.8	14.8	-2.04
Tony Battie	47	47	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	0.07	-21	7	-28	18.0	15.9	2.09	12.4	14.9	-2.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.28,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 114, CHA 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.48,0.37,0.22,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%
IND 107, SAC 98	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.31,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.8%
LAC 117, HOU 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.56,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%