NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	92		Excitement	2.1 [1288]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): +12.1%
Charlotte Bobcats	62		Comeback	1.0 [607]		LVP	Gerald Wallace (CHA): -13.0%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.16	0.00	0.04	13	72%	0.12	1	-0.00	6	83%	0.00
Yao Ming	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	16	57%	0.06	4	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Rafer Alston	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	12	42%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.01	11	55%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	8	47%	0.01	1	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Scott Padgett	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Novak	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	33%	-0.01	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	-0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Vassilis Spanoulis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	5	40%	-0.02	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jake Voskuhl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bernard Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	5	20%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter Herrmann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	9	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Primoz Brezec	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.12	0.00	-0.10	6	25%	-0.01	4	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	13	52%	-0.02	2	-0.01	5	60%	-0.02
Emeka Okafor	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	9	40%	-0.01	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Sean May	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	6	39%	-0.03	2	-0.01	6	83%	0.00
Adam Morrison	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.24	-0.00	-0.11	11	9%	-0.07	5	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.16	-0.00	-0.04	5	14%	-0.05	4	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	2.4	27.2	16.0	23.8	1.6	23.6	123.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +34.9%

HOU +5.9%

CHA -1.3%

HOU +11.7%

CHA -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	CHA	NBA	HOU	CHA	NBA
this game	15.2	15.1	15.4	95.8	66.0	104.5
season	15.6	15.7		103.6	101.7
opponent	15.0	15.7		105.6	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.7	16.8	14.2	15.2	15.2
CHA	15.3	16.7	14.0	14.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafer Alston	61	60	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.48	32	-2	34	14.7	16.0	-1.30	15.0	15.4	-0.47
Juwan Howard	57	54	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.29	25	5	20	15.4	14.9	0.47	15.5	14.6	0.89
Tracy McGrady	57	55	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.41	29	1	28	15.1	15.3	-0.13	14.8	15.6	-0.77
Shane Battier	64	62	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.36	22	8	14	15.0	15.6	-0.62	14.6	16.2	-1.54
Luther Head	43	43	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.10	13	17	-4	15.5	14.9	0.65	15.9	14.5	1.37
Yao Ming	52	54	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.18	15	15	0	14.2	16.4	-2.19	15.2	15.0	0.20
Dikembe Mutombo	33	30	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.13	12	18	-6	16.5	14.5	1.95	15.1	15.1	-0.01
Vassilis Spanoulis	33	33	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	29	-28	15.7	14.9	0.84	15.8	14.8	1.00
Charles Hayes	31	32	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.22	9	21	-12	15.0	15.3	-0.31	15.5	15.0	0.55
Steve Novak	20	19	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	33	-36	15.1	15.2	-0.03	14.4	15.3	-0.96
Scott Padgett	17	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	33	-36	16.0	15.0	1.00	13.9	15.4	-1.45
John Lucas III	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	32	-34	15.5	15.1	0.37	15.5	15.1	0.41

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Melvin Ely	32	32	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.03	-1	-29	28	14.7	15.4	-0.73	15.1	15.2	-0.17
Othella Harrington	23	22	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.10	-4	-26	22	16.8	14.6	2.23	14.9	15.3	-0.41
Primoz Brezec	26	27	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-28	26	12.6	16.1	-3.54	15.2	15.2	0.01
Walter Herrmann	36	37	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-26	22	15.2	15.1	0.09	15.4	15.1	0.33
Bernard Robinson	45	46	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.09	-10	-20	10	15.4	14.9	0.42	15.2	15.1	0.12
Derek Anderson	40	42	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.02	-8	-22	14	15.1	15.2	-0.11	16.5	14.2	2.27
Emeka Okafor	31	33	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.25	-16	-14	-2	16.4	14.5	1.82	15.1	15.2	-0.18
Jake Voskuhl	24	25	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.30	-19	-11	-8	14.6	15.3	-0.69	14.6	15.4	-0.78
Sean May	46	46	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.09	-13	-17	4	15.2	15.1	0.11	15.3	15.0	0.33
Raymond Felton	70	71	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.25	-20	-10	-10	14.6	16.8	-2.22	15.2	15.0	0.24
Adam Morrison	59	60	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.42	-27	-3	-24	15.3	14.9	0.36	14.6	16.1	-1.45
Gerald Wallace	38	39	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.39	-26	-4	-22	16.1	14.5	1.67	14.8	15.4	-0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.23,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 95, CHA 64	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.0%
ORL 112, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.19,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.8%
MEM 114, SAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.8%