NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	98		Excitement	7.3 [377]		MVP	Matt Freije (ATL): +10.6%
Detroit Pistons	103		Comeback	4.2 [523]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -15.0%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Freije	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	3	117%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08	0.10	0.01	0.04	12	67%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Tyronn Lue	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.03	0.00	9	62%	0.12	3	-0.08	8	75%	-0.00
Salim Stoudamire	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	70%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0	0.10	-0.02	0.07	13	74%	0.14	4	-0.13	8	75%	-0.01
Solomon Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Bozeman	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	2	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	10	41%	0.02	3	-0.11	9	89%	0.04
Speedy Claxton	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	5	25%	-0.06	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Smith	-0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.02	12	31%	-0.07	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.00	8	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	6	65%	0.11	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	0.02	0.05	13	63%	0.09	1	-0.01	12	83%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.06	0.01	14	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	15	47%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	16	39%	-0.02	1	-0.00	6	83%	-0.01
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	8	31%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.7	30.4	17.4	28.4	2.4	38.4	145.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +22.0%

ATL -19.0%

DET +11.6%

DET +35.5%

ATL -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DET	NBA	ATL	DET	NBA
this game	15.5	15.3	15.4	105.4	109.6	104.5
season	16.1	16.8		101.1	106.1
opponent	15.7	15.3		101.7	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.0	15.7	16.4	14.9	15.5
DET	15.6	14.9	16.3	14.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Speedy Claxton	33	33	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.02	6	-11	17	16.8	14.7	2.10	17.0	14.4	2.56
Matt Freije	19	21	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.08	6	-11	17	14.0	15.9	-1.88	12.5	16.1	-3.59
Lorenzen Wright	13	14	0.08	-0.58	0.65	0.02	2	-7	9	17.1	15.2	1.84	15.1	15.3	-0.19
Salim Stoudamire	34	33	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.01	2	-7	9	15.2	15.7	-0.50	15.0	15.5	-0.52
Solomon Jones	10	10	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-7	9	14.3	15.6	-1.34	16.4	15.2	1.22
Cedric Bozeman	21	21	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-2	-1	16.7	15.1	1.58	13.1	15.9	-2.79
Shelden Williams	79	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.44	1	-6	7	15.6	15.0	0.58	15.5	14.6	0.90
Zaza Pachulia	60	60	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.25	-9	4	-13	15.9	14.7	1.28	16.1	13.9	2.28
Joe Johnson	67	69	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.34	-8	3	-11	15.3	16.0	-0.70	15.7	14.2	1.46
Tyronn Lue	60	61	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.38	-11	6	-17	14.7	16.8	-2.10	14.4	17.0	-2.56
Josh Smith	69	70	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.32	-13	8	-21	15.3	16.2	-0.91	15.6	14.5	1.03

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	57	56	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.34	13	-8	21	14.5	16.5	-2.03	14.7	16.6	-1.87
Rasheed Wallace	77	76	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.31	13	-8	21	15.3	15.5	-0.20	15.7	14.5	1.18
Chauncey Billups	78	76	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.26	12	-7	19	15.2	15.9	-0.68	15.6	14.9	0.68
Richard Hamilton	70	68	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.23	7	-2	9	15.1	15.8	-0.70	15.4	15.9	-0.53
Carlos Delfino	27	28	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.00	8	-3	11	15.0	15.4	-0.38	15.6	15.4	0.21
Tayshaun Prince	73	71	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.40	-7	12	-19	15.2	15.6	-0.34	15.8	14.4	1.48
Ronald Murray	23	24	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	4	-3	16.5	14.9	1.55	15.7	15.4	0.23
Dale Davis	20	19	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.07	2	3	-1	15.6	15.2	0.43	14.5	15.7	-1.22
Lindsey Hunter	17	18	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.13	-10	15	-25	15.0	15.4	-0.38	15.3	15.5	-0.27
Nazr Mohammed	28	29	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	0.08	-14	19	-33	17.2	14.5	2.77	16.0	15.3	0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.56,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.81,0.85,0.91,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 87, ORL 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.41,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.29,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.31,0.52,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.73,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.83,1	92.6%
PHX 92, DEN 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.65,0.67,0.55,0.84,0.96,0.97,1	92.5%
CHI 106, CHH 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.34,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.43,0.52,0.63,0.59,0.84,0.54,0.75,0.84,0.94,0.84,1	92.4%