NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	109		Excitement	7.6 [327]		MVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): +19.5%
Denver Nuggets	113		Comeback	7.4 [248]		LVP	Yakhouba Diawara (DEN): -14.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.05	0.03	20	62%	0.21	4	-0.12	5	100%	0.02
Chris Duhon	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	6	83%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.03	0.01	8	46%	0.02	1	-0.02	8	37%	-0.10
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	-0.02	19	55%	0.09	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Andres Nocioni	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.00	-0.07	0.02	15	47%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	5	33%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Ben Gordon	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.01	-0.09	0.04	14	50%	-0.06	3	-0.08	10	90%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.2	0.20	0.17	0.06	0.03	24	68%	0.31	3	-0.12	5	100%	0.03
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.15	0.15	0.02	0.14	0.00	8	52%	0.18	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.05	0.03	4	62%	0.07	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.02
Marcus Camby	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	11	57%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	6	57%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.01	-0.03	20	56%	0.14	10	-0.20	12	83%	0.05
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	9	30%	-0.05	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	6	17%	-0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.6	27.3	15.3	24.7	0.6	42.0	136.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +32.5%

DEN +9.1%

DEN +11.1%

CHI -5.2%

DEN +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DEN	NBA	CHI	DEN	NBA
this game	14.5	13.1	15.4	103.8	108.7	104.5
season	14.5	14.0		103.1	105.8
opponent	15.3	15.9		104.5	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.4	13.0	15.1	13.5	14.5
DEN	11.9	14.2	14.2	12.2	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	83	81	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.22	14	-18	32	13.9	16.4	-2.47	13.4	12.0	1.41
Chris Duhon	43	43	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.12	0	-4	4	15.1	14.0	1.08	13.9	12.6	1.30
Tyrus Thomas	13	13	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-4	4	16.5	14.2	2.38	11.6	13.3	-1.69
Andres Nocioni	87	86	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.41	10	-14	24	14.4	14.5	-0.05	13.2	12.4	0.86
Malik Allen	35	35	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.09	-8	4	-12	14.4	14.5	-0.13	12.4	13.4	-1.01
Kirk Hinrich	85	84	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-2	0	14.3	15.2	-0.98	13.3	12.3	0.92
Ben Wallace	83	82	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.33	-10	6	-16	14.5	14.4	0.06	13.2	12.5	0.70
Ben Gordon	68	67	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.50	-5	1	-6	14.0	15.3	-1.30	12.7	13.8	-1.03
Thabo Sefolosha	28	29	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.10	-19	15	-34	15.8	14.0	1.86	12.0	13.5	-1.47

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	78	80	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.41	5	-1	6	13.2	12.8	0.33	14.7	13.6	1.13
Andre Miller	89	90	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.35	4	0	4	13.0	13.6	-0.59	14.5	14.3	0.22
Marcus Camby	75	76	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.30	1	3	-2	12.7	14.1	-1.35	14.7	13.7	1.06
Reggie Evans	50	49	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.02	10	-6	16	13.8	12.5	1.32	14.4	14.5	-0.13
Carmelo Anthony	87	87	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.28	-1	5	-6	12.7	15.2	-2.49	14.8	13.0	1.76
Eduardo Najera	49	50	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.33	-3	7	-10	12.8	13.4	-0.61	14.2	14.7	-0.45
Yakhouba Diawara	41	42	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	1	2	13.4	12.9	0.49	14.1	14.7	-0.56
Linas Kleiza	35	36	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	4	-4	13.7	12.8	0.89	13.8	14.8	-0.95
DerMarr Johnson	16	15	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.01	1	3	-2	13.9	12.9	0.99	13.1	14.7	-1.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.25,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.26,0.32,0.58,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.72,0.47,0.71,0.83,0.86,0.84,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 81, ATL 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.46,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.5,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.29,0.36,0.5,0.52,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.72,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,1	92.9%
IND 82, TOR 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.44,0.48,0.62,0.48,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.71,0.83,0.93,0.97,1,1,1	90.6%
ATL 102, NJN 116	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.75,0.52,0.6,0.69,0.76,0.86,0.85,0.99,1,1,1	90.5%