NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	119		Excitement	3.4 [1124]		MVP	Luke Ridnour (SEA): +17.1%
New Jersey Nets	113		Comeback	1.3 [521]		LVP	Marcus Williams (NJN): -5.0%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Ridnour	0.17	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17	0.20	0.01	0.04	18	73%	0.18	1	-0.01	8	100%	0.03
Chris Wilcox	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.14	0.01	0.05	13	63%	0.10	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.17	-0.01	0.07	17	73%	0.12	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.00	-0.07	18	52%	0.11	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	4	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	-0.06	10	30%	-0.03	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	7	27%	-0.02	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.22	-0.00	0.13	26	63%	0.08	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.12	0.00	0.09	10	69%	0.04	1	-0.01	9	89%	0.01
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	0.00	0.05	16	62%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Hassan Adams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Antoine Wright	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	8	56%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	4	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Marcus Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	0.05	9	55%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.5	25.4	14.7	28.7	1.6	31.5	130.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +19.3%

SEA +7.9%

SEA +16.4%

SEA +2.4%

SEA +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	NJN	NBA	SEA	NJN	NBA
this game	16.5	14.5	15.4	129.3	120.2	104.5
season	15.4	15.4		105.5	103.1
opponent	15.7	15.4		103.8	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	13.8	16.1	17.0	19.1	16.5
NJN	15.0	16.6	13.7	12.7	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Ridnour	76	81	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.23	9	-3	12	16.2	18.1	-1.90	14.6	13.8	0.76
Chris Wilcox	78	79	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.24	6	0	6	16.5	16.2	0.32	14.1	16.8	-2.74
Ray Allen	80	80	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.41	-2	8	-10	16.5	16.7	-0.20	14.5	14.6	-0.08
Rashard Lewis	72	73	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.29	2	4	-2	16.4	16.9	-0.59	14.5	14.6	-0.15
Johan Petro	29	32	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.14	16	-10	26	14.0	17.7	-3.69	17.3	13.0	4.31
Nick Collison	65	65	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.38	-4	10	-14	17.9	13.2	4.68	13.6	16.5	-2.92
Damien Wilkins	31	32	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.16	0	6	-6	16.6	16.4	0.19	14.7	14.4	0.28
Earl Watson	29	28	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	3	0	16.9	16.3	0.65	14.2	14.6	-0.46

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hassan Adams	4	3	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.10	-6	0	-6	6.0	14.9	-8.88	18.0	16.4	1.56
Mikki Moore	27	28	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.11	-2	-4	2	13.1	15.1	-2.00	19.9	15.0	4.89
Marcus Williams	44	43	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.41	7	-13	20	13.2	15.7	-2.48	18.1	15.1	3.01
Jason Collins	41	39	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.00	-7	1	-8	16.0	13.4	2.57	14.3	18.1	-3.88
Bostjan Nachbar	29	29	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.04	-6	0	-6	14.5	14.5	0.02	16.9	16.3	0.65
Clifford Robinson	31	30	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.02	-7	1	-8	13.8	14.8	-0.99	18.9	15.3	3.58
Jason Kidd	78	78	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.45	6	-12	18	14.5	14.3	0.23	16.5	16.5	-0.01
Vince Carter	84	83	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.37	1	-7	8	14.6	13.9	0.67	16.1	20.2	-4.14
Nenad Krstic	60	57	-0.35	-0.14	-0.21	-0.24	-4	-2	-2	15.3	13.1	2.12	15.5	18.1	-2.67
Antoine Wright	72	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.09	-12	6	-18	15.0	12.9	2.14	15.4	19.9	-4.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.16,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.12,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 94, POR 76	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.16,0.17,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
UTA 108, NOH 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
MIN 123, PHI 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.23,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	95.9%