NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	83		Excitement	5.6 [725]		MVP	Al Harrington (IND): +11.0%
Indiana Pacers	93		Comeback	2.3 [708]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -22.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.04	0.04	11	73%	0.15	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	7	44%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Battie	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	30%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Darko Milicic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	6	36%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Trevor Ariza	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	12%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	9	57%	0.03	4	-0.11	3	67%	-0.01
Grant Hill	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	0.04	15	50%	-0.01	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Keyon Dooling	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	7	14%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.22	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.10	-0.08	0.03	12	55%	0.01	8	-0.23	7	43%	-0.04

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.05	0.06	23	60%	0.15	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.03
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.01	-0.02	8	90%	0.20	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Rawle Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
David Harrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	4	40%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Stephen Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	10	38%	0.02	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sarunas Jasikevicius	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	0.02	5	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.01
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	4	40%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	50%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.04	-0.02	15	28%	-0.11	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	2.0	31.0	15.4	25.3	2.6	35.4	140.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +12.4%

IND +17.8%

IND +4.9%

IND +17.2%

ORL -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	IND	NBA	ORL	IND	NBA
this game	14.9	15.4	15.4	87.4	97.9	104.5
season	15.9	15.3		103.4	101.3
opponent	15.3	15.7		103.9	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	11.5	16.1	17.0	15.8	14.9
IND	14.2	15.2	14.3	18.5	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	70	70	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.17	10	-20	30	13.5	18.8	-5.27	15.6	15.0	0.60
Grant Hill	69	68	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.14	6	-16	22	13.5	18.8	-5.31	15.1	16.1	-0.94
Tony Battie	65	63	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-6	2	14.8	15.2	-0.42	15.4	15.4	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	28	29	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.08	-4	-6	2	16.3	14.3	1.99	16.7	14.8	1.86
Jameer Nelson	67	66	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.13	-6	-4	-2	14.3	16.3	-1.99	14.8	16.7	-1.86
Dwight Howard	84	84	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-6	2	14.5	17.7	-3.18	15.3	16.2	-0.88
Darko Milicic	35	36	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.16	-12	2	-14	17.0	13.7	3.30	16.8	14.5	2.31
Keyon Dooling	30	31	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.04	-17	7	-24	17.3	13.8	3.53	14.6	15.8	-1.22
Trevor Ariza	27	28	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.07	-19	9	-28	18.3	13.6	4.72	15.0	15.6	-0.52

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	28	27	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.14	14	-4	18	17.3	14.6	2.67	18.8	13.4	5.45
Marquis Daniels	34	33	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.11	11	-1	12	17.4	14.3	3.13	17.0	13.8	3.15
Danny Granger	71	71	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.18	7	3	4	14.9	17.0	-2.09	14.6	15.7	-1.12
Jeff Foster	35	34	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.17	7	3	4	15.9	15.1	0.81	16.0	14.3	1.64
Stephen Jackson	68	70	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.06	7	3	4	14.6	17.4	-2.80	14.6	15.7	-1.09
Jermaine O'Neal	62	63	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.09	6	4	2	15.3	15.5	-0.22	15.2	14.3	0.91
Sarunas Jasikevicius	28	27	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.13	13	-3	16	14.3	15.9	-1.58	15.4	14.7	0.64
Al Harrington	75	75	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.27	-4	14	-18	16.1	12.9	3.17	14.3	17.3	-3.08
David Harrison	4	4	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	7	-4	13.7	15.5	-1.72	11.5	15.1	-3.57
Rawle Marshall	13	13	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.09	-3	13	-16	14.5	15.5	-1.00	13.1	15.2	-2.13
Jamaal Tinsley	57	58	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	0.09	-11	21	-32	14.6	16.6	-1.92	12.9	18.0	-5.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.34,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.55,0.45,0.44,0.56,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.98,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 85, LAL 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.43,0.46,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.44,0.63,0.75,0.85,0.85,0.96,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
PHX 77, DAL 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.71,0.7,0.82,0.86,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,1	94.4%
MIA 92, NYK 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.88,0.94,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	94.0%