NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	103		Excitement	6.3 [556]		MVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): +42.8%
Washington Wizards	116		Comeback	1.6 [854]		LVP	Mo Williams (MIL): -8.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.35	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.35	0.24	0.10	-0.01	21	70%	0.43	4	-0.08	19	95%	0.11
T.J. Ford	0.19	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.07	0.11	-0.00	16	65%	0.28	4	-0.09	8	87%	0.01
Bobby Simmons	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.12	0.05	-0.00	14	71%	0.23	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	7	57%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43	0.43	0.17	0.28	0.02	24	64%	0.50	3	-0.07	19	89%	0.16
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	0.00	19	61%	0.15	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.02
Caron Butler	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.06	-0.02	18	58%	0.18	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.02	-0.02	7	53%	0.08	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Billy Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	6	35%	0.00	3	-0.06	5	40%	-0.03
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	5	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	27.3	15.5	31.8	1.7	39.2	140.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +10.9%

MIL -2.9%

WAS +21.9%

WAS +17.1%

WAS +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	WAS	NBA	MIL	WAS	NBA
this game	16.0	15.8	15.6	114.4	127.5	104.4
season	15.5	15.1		104.6	107.4
opponent	15.6	15.5		105.5	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.9	16.8	15.2	15.3	16.0
WAS	15.2	14.5	16.9	16.7	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Magloire	61	60	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.07	4	-17	21	15.6	16.8	-1.19	15.7	16.0	-0.35
T.J. Ford	70	72	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.14	3	-16	19	16.0	15.9	0.09	16.1	14.8	1.28
Dan Gadzuric	7	8	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.07	-8	-5	-3	15.6	16.1	-0.49	14.5	15.9	-1.43
Toni Kukoc	13	13	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.04	-10	-3	-7	16.9	15.9	1.05	15.5	15.8	-0.31
Charlie Bell	39	40	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.14	-6	-7	1	13.8	17.7	-3.84	16.1	15.6	0.53
Mo Williams	20	19	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	1	-15	17.3	15.6	1.71	15.8	15.8	0.05
Andrew Bogut	75	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.16	-10	-3	-7	16.7	12.5	4.19	16.3	13.5	2.79
Michael Redd	88	90	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	-1	-11	15.8	24.5	-8.67	15.5	44.0	-28.51
Bobby Simmons	77	79	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.13	-12	-1	-11	16.5	13.2	3.26	15.5	17.6	-2.05

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antawn Jamison	83	84	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.23	16	-3	19	15.7	17.0	-1.31	16.1	14.8	1.27
Antonio Daniels	60	61	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.05	17	-4	21	16.2	15.0	1.22	14.5	19.2	-4.70
Gilbert Arenas	89	87	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.10	14	-1	15	15.5	30.0	-14.52	15.8	22.7	-6.87
Caron Butler	87	85	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.07	13	0	13	15.5	21.5	-5.96	15.7	20.8	-5.06
Jared Jeffries	59	57	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.16	6	7	-1	16.2	15.2	1.00	18.0	12.7	5.30
Billy Thomas	5	5	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	11	-9	21.6	15.5	6.13	20.8	15.7	5.06
Michael Ruffin	29	30	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.13	3	10	-7	16.5	15.5	1.05	14.4	16.8	-2.48
Brendan Haywood	43	41	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.10	-6	19	-25	15.0	16.5	-1.52	17.1	15.1	1.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.48,0.48,0.67,0.68,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.96,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 95, NJN 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.62,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.79,0.91,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.99,1	93.8%
CLE 88, NYK 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.5,0.44,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.75,0.69,0.81,0.83,0.75,0.84,0.81,0.89,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.79,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.83,0.94,0.97,0.98,1,0.99,1,1	93.6%
WAS 74, DET 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.62,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.72,0.79,0.86,0.78,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.79,0.62,0.52,0.57,0.72,0.81,0.86,0.85,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.4%