NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	103		Excitement	7.7 [303]		MVP	Mike James (TOR): +82.5%
Toronto Raptors	108		Comeback	13.1 [172]		LVP	Rafael Araujo (TOR): -9.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.3,0.3	0.09	0.21	-0.00	9	72%	0.30	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.02	0.02	6	100%	0.16	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Richard Hamilton	0.06	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	12	62%	0.10	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0.05	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Rasheed Wallace	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Maxiell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	5	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Tony Delk	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03	0.02	-0.05	0.00	11	62%	0.09	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.02
Antonio McDyess	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Maurice Evans	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.06	-0.03	10	45%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	6	37%	0.02	2	-0.10	4	100%	0.05

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike James	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.17,0.17,0.29,0.41,0.83	0.83	0.23	0.62	0.02	16	78%	0.92	4	-0.10	18	100%	0.27
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.00	13	54%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	15	56%	0.11	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Loren Woods	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	45%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,0,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.07	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.01	14	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Pape Sow	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	31%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rafael Araujo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.7	26.5	16.0	26.3	1.8	41.2	138.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +5.6%

TOR +40.8%

TOR +3.2%

TOR +1.1%

DET -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	TOR	NBA	DET	TOR	NBA
this game	14.8	15.8	15.6	108.4	116.1	104.4
season	16.9	15.6		108.3	107.3
opponent	15.4	15.8		110.5	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.0	14.2	13.2	14.2	14.8
TOR	16.3	13.5	19.5	14.6	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	40	39	0.44	-0.94	1.39	0.00	15	-20	35	15.1	14.6	0.50	17.8	14.4	3.41
Rasheed Wallace	39	39	0.42	-0.92	1.35	0.04	13	-18	31	15.1	14.6	0.41	17.8	14.4	3.41
Ben Wallace	52	51	0.41	-0.91	1.31	0.11	10	-15	25	15.7	13.7	2.08	17.7	13.5	4.22
Richard Hamilton	43	43	0.39	-0.89	1.27	0.03	12	-17	29	15.5	14.2	1.32	18.0	14.0	3.93
Tayshaun Prince	35	36	0.33	-0.83	1.16	0.01	11	-16	27	16.5	13.8	2.74	17.6	14.7	2.94
Dale Davis	8	7	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.03	-2	-3	1	14.2	14.9	-0.61	17.1	15.7	1.41
Antonio McDyess	42	40	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.11	-9	4	-13	15.3	14.4	0.94	15.5	16.1	-0.55
Maurice Evans	45	44	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.45	-2	-3	1	12.9	16.5	-3.65	15.8	15.9	-0.13
Jason Maxiell	35	35	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.50	-13	8	-21	13.5	15.5	-2.01	12.8	17.7	-4.87
Tony Delk	52	50	-0.89	0.39	-1.27	-0.39	-17	12	-29	14.2	15.5	-1.32	14.0	18.0	-3.93
Lindsey Hunter	54	54	-0.93	0.43	-1.36	-0.34	-20	15	-35	14.8	14.8	0.01	14.4	17.8	-3.41
Carlos Delfino	30	27	-1.11	0.61	-1.71	-0.43	-23	18	-41	14.2	15.1	-0.84	11.1	17.8	-6.61

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Calderon	49	52	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.43	14	-9	23	15.7	16.0	-0.35	13.8	16.0	-2.17
Joey Graham	65	66	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.29	17	-12	29	15.3	17.0	-1.66	14.0	16.8	-2.80
Morris Peterson	69	70	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.38	4	1	3	16.0	15.4	0.57	15.1	14.1	0.94
Mike James	82	83	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.42	1	4	-3	15.0	21.9	-6.88	14.7	15.6	-0.88
Charlie Villanueva	86	88	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.36	0	5	-5	16.2	11.0	5.23	14.9	14.1	0.72
Rafael Araujo	47	48	-0.01	0.52	-0.53	-0.10	3	2	1	15.4	16.3	-0.84	15.9	13.7	2.15
Loren Woods	39	39	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.07	-2	7	-9	17.1	14.9	2.22	14.5	15.0	-0.55
Pape Sow	28	29	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	0.06	-12	17	-29	17.0	15.3	1.66	16.8	14.0	2.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.13,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.07,0.1,0.19,0.33,0.47,0.77,0.89,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 77, SAS 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.6,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.28,0.3,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.27,0.38,0.72,0.87,0.87,1	93.9%
POR 90, PHX 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.23,0.1,0.24,0.39,0.19,0.54,0.84,1,1	90.7%
ATL 104, LAC 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.34,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.14,0.19,0.25,0.4,0.4,0.53,0.72,0.94,1,1	90.7%