NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	97		Excitement	7.7 [300]		MVP	Keyon Dooling (ORL): +29.5%
Chicago Bulls	93		Comeback	10.3 [79]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): -24.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keyon Dooling	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.28,0.29	0.14	0.17	0.01	7	94%	0.29	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0.23	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.23	0.05	0.19	0.02	9	68%	0.29	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Darko Milicic	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.05	0.00	12	50%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	41%	0.00	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Pat Garrity	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.02,-0.07,-0.05	0.12	-0.16	0.01	13	69%	0.02	2	-0.07	9	78%	0.01
Tony Battie	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.00	-0.09	-0.02	7	59%	0.03	3	-0.10	8	87%	0.02
Trevor Ariza	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	5	25%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.13	-0.06	-0.01	10	29%	-0.08	4	-0.10	1	0%	-0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14	0.14	0.14	0.01	0.02	15	70%	0.18	2	-0.04	7	71%	-0.04
Michael Sweetney	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Schenscher	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.19,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	17	34%	0.04	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	2	17%	-0.01	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	10	42%	-0.01	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	17	35%	-0.17	1	-0.01	6	33%	-0.10
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.21,-0.24	-0.24	-0.05	-0.18	0.01	13	44%	-0.20	2	-0.04	6	33%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.3	24.5	15.7	26.1	2.5	36.5	133.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +38.1%

ORL +21.0%

ORL +7.1%

CHI -14.6%

CHI -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHI	NBA	ORL	CHI	NBA
this game	16.4	13.9	15.6	102.1	97.9	104.4
season	16.4	14.4		104.4	102.6
opponent	16.1	15.7		102.1	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	18.3	14.7	15.8	17.0	16.4
CHI	13.0	13.0	14.8	15.0	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trevor Ariza	30	30	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.59	10	-6	16	15.2	17.0	-1.75	13.4	14.2	-0.75
Keyon Dooling	48	48	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.34	14	-10	24	14.9	17.9	-3.04	13.4	14.5	-1.09
Darko Milicic	56	54	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.32	11	-7	18	15.9	17.1	-1.15	13.7	14.2	-0.45
Jameer Nelson	52	51	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.48	0	4	-4	15.6	17.4	-1.82	14.2	13.6	0.61
Hedo Turkoglu	77	77	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.42	-1	5	-6	16.8	14.7	2.14	14.2	12.7	1.47
Carlos Arroyo	44	46	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.17	8	-4	12	17.0	15.9	1.16	13.2	14.6	-1.44
Pat Garrity	9	10	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.07	4	0	4	20.1	16.0	4.10	17.1	13.5	3.56
Bo Outlaw	15	15	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	3	-2	13.8	16.9	-3.09	11.5	14.4	-2.83
Tony Battie	39	40	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.05	-7	11	-18	17.1	15.9	1.15	14.4	13.6	0.79
DeShawn Stevenson	47	47	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	0.05	-10	14	-24	17.9	14.9	3.04	14.5	13.4	1.09
Dwight Howard	58	57	-0.36	0.86	-1.21	-0.06	-10	14	-24	16.8	15.7	1.14	14.1	13.7	0.43

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Sweetney	33	34	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.01	3	-7	10	13.1	14.3	-1.22	16.7	16.2	0.52
Malik Allen	38	39	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.10	-1	-3	2	13.0	14.5	-1.53	15.3	17.2	-1.90
Chris Duhon	56	57	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.08	-1	-3	2	15.1	12.3	2.82	17.9	14.1	3.87
Othella Harrington	10	9	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.01	1	-5	6	12.0	14.1	-2.14	14.0	16.7	-2.65
Luke Schenscher	1	1	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.03	0	-4	4	20.0	13.9	6.15	20.0	16.4	3.64
Andres Nocioni	78	77	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.36	1	-5	6	14.2	12.6	1.55	16.8	14.7	2.14
Kirk Hinrich	80	80	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.45	3	-7	10	13.4	16.5	-3.03	16.0	18.7	-2.77
Tyson Chandler	51	51	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.41	-8	4	-12	14.7	13.0	1.66	16.5	16.2	0.28
Ben Gordon	54	53	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.39	-10	6	-16	13.4	14.6	-1.14	15.4	17.7	-2.27
Luol Deng	74	74	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.50	-8	4	-12	14.1	13.3	0.81	16.6	15.8	0.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.67,0.6,0.61,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.7,0.7,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.74,0.74,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.79,0.8,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.55,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 93, DET 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.77,0.8,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.91,0.79,0.76,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.45,0.27,0	92.9%
ATL 112, BOS 106	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.85,0.94,0.86,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.67,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.26,0	92.2%
PHX 91, LAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.82,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.8,0.75,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.87,0.88,0.7,0.76,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.43,0.16,0	91.9%