NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	91		Excitement	7.0 [448]		MVP	Shandon Anderson (MIA): +15.6%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	7.3 [323]		LVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): -19.2%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.04	-0.00	16	53%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	0	75%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Anthony Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Scot Pollard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sarunas Jasikevicius	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.00	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0,0,0	0.07	-0.05	0.02	16	65%	0.11	3	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Granger	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	13	53%	0.07	4	-0.12	6	83%	0.02
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.17	-0.02	0.00	17	26%	-0.14	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.04	0.10	-0.01	3	71%	0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	14	62%	0.11	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Wayne Simien	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.02	0.08	-0.00	8	37%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	11	46%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	3	71%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.12,-0.16,-0.04,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.06	0.00	21	43%	0.13	4	-0.13	9	89%	0.06
James Posey	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.06	-0.00	10	68%	0.21	6	-0.25	14	79%	0.02
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	5	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.7	37.5	15.6	28.2	2.5	31.2	140.9
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +6.2%

MIA +28.0%

MIA +37.1%

IND -9.2%

IND -12.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	16.9	14.8	15.6	100.0	105.5	104.4
season	16.0	15.5		102.3	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.5		102.3	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	16.3	14.2	18.4	18.9	16.9
MIA	12.4	16.4	12.3	18.9	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Foster	24	26	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.12	8	-13	21	16.4	17.0	-0.60	15.8	14.4	1.42
Sarunas Jasikevicius	2	2	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.06	2	-7	9	9.0	17.0	-8.03	15.5	14.8	0.72
Danny Granger	38	41	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.12	-4	-1	-3	18.1	16.0	2.10	16.6	13.3	3.22
Stephen Jackson	81	81	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.27	0	-5	5	17.0	15.3	1.75	14.7	15.3	-0.57
Anthony Johnson	48	49	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.19	-5	0	-5	18.2	15.3	2.95	16.2	13.1	3.11
Jamaal Tinsley	65	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	-2	-1	15.7	19.7	-3.92	14.2	16.4	-2.16
Jermaine O'Neal	71	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.26	-7	2	-9	17.1	16.0	1.10	14.2	16.7	-2.49
Scot Pollard	56	53	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.09	-13	8	-21	16.7	17.0	-0.28	13.1	17.1	-4.02
Peja Stojakovic	70	68	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.40	-3	-2	-1	16.3	18.8	-2.54	14.9	14.6	0.24

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shandon Anderson	26	25	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.40	9	-4	13	17.3	13.8	3.52	19.1	16.0	3.06
Shaquille O'Neal	73	74	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.25	9	-4	13	13.7	19.2	-5.52	16.7	17.6	-0.97
Gary Payton	44	43	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.43	0	5	-5	17.0	12.7	4.36	17.5	16.2	1.28
Dwyane Wade	79	82	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.26	5	0	5	14.8	14.9	-0.14	16.8	17.0	-0.16
Wayne Simien	42	39	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.37	-3	8	-11	17.4	12.6	4.77	17.3	16.6	0.70
Antoine Walker	47	46	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.08	3	2	1	14.6	15.0	-0.40	18.1	15.6	2.49
James Posey	45	45	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.00	2	3	-1	12.7	16.8	-4.11	15.2	18.5	-3.28
Jason Williams	63	64	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	3	-1	13.2	18.5	-5.31	16.2	18.4	-2.26
Michael Doleac	17	16	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.02	-1	6	-7	19.2	13.8	5.39	18.4	16.5	1.84
Udonis Haslem	19	21	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	6	-7	11.6	15.6	-3.99	14.5	17.6	-3.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.27,0.29,0.4,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.32,0.53,0.76,0.6,0.52,0.85,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 87, LAC 95	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.65,0.61,0.38,0.63,0.86,0.95,1	91.6%
PHX 92, DEN 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.65,0.67,0.55,0.84,0.96,0.97,1	91.6%
NJN 83, BOS 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.57,0.63,0.74,0.8,0.61,0.68,0.89,0.99,0.95,1	91.5%