NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	77		Excitement	2.3 [1294]		MVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): +6.5%
Toronto Raptors	97		Comeback	1.0 [1278]		LVP	Marcus Banks (MIN): -6.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Justin Reed	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	7	62%	0.04	2	-0.03	7	43%	-0.01
Mark Madsen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Dupree	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	11	56%	0.02	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.00
Ricky Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	11	38%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Marko Jaric	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	9	25%	-0.05	1	-0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Rashad McCants	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.02	12	38%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Banks	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	13	38%	-0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.00	-0.05	13	50%	0.07	2	-0.00	8	87%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.02	7	67%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	0.00	0.04	14	66%	0.06	2	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	5	75%	0.07	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Pape Sow	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rafael Araujo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrick Martin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	19	47%	0.05	4	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	10	30%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Barrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.5	27.8	16.4	25.8	2.0	26.2	124.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +26.2%

TOR +11.0%

TOR +8.8%

TOR +3.2%

TOR +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	TOR	NBA	MIN	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	17.6	15.6	89.5	109.0	104.4
season	16.1	15.6		101.0	107.3
opponent	15.4	15.9		110.5	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	18.0	13.6	16.0	13.4	15.3
TOR	14.0	17.7	18.2	20.5	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Griffin	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-19	18	15.0	15.3	-0.30	17.2	17.6	-0.41
Ronald Dupree	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-21	22	10.0	15.5	-5.48	17.7	17.6	0.17
Mark Madsen	6	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.09	3	-23	26	11.2	15.6	-4.43	17.4	17.6	-0.17
Anthony Carter	21	23	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.08	-2	-18	16	13.5	15.9	-2.34	19.0	17.1	1.85
Marko Jaric	45	48	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.01	-5	-15	10	14.2	16.5	-2.38	18.1	17.0	1.08
Justin Reed	40	41	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.04	-10	-10	0	15.2	15.3	-0.12	17.9	17.3	0.59
Mark Blount	45	45	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.03	-10	-10	0	15.5	15.0	0.51	16.6	18.6	-2.08
Ricky Davis	76	77	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	-8	-4	15.5	14.0	1.46	17.7	17.0	0.68
Marcus Banks	59	60	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.28	-24	4	-28	15.4	15.0	0.42	17.6	17.6	-0.00
Rashad McCants	64	66	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.12	-19	-1	-18	16.3	12.3	4.06	16.9	19.6	-2.73
Kevin Garnett	67	69	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.14	-21	1	-22	15.8	13.5	2.33	17.9	16.6	1.27

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	85	83	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.12	21	-1	22	17.6	17.7	-0.17	15.5	10.0	5.48
Chris Bosh	84	82	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.06	19	1	18	17.6	17.2	0.41	15.3	15.0	0.30
Mike James	64	62	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.14	19	1	18	17.5	17.7	-0.13	15.9	13.8	2.08
Charlie Villanueva	47	46	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.13	18	2	16	16.1	19.2	-3.09	16.8	13.5	3.35
Pape Sow	29	28	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.05	9	11	-2	16.2	18.2	-2.04	17.2	14.4	2.85
Joey Graham	54	51	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	18	-16	18.4	16.4	2.00	14.3	16.7	-2.40
Andre Barrett	32	32	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.04	6	14	-8	17.3	17.7	-0.38	13.6	16.3	-2.75
Matt Bonner	40	38	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	16	-12	19.5	16.0	3.57	13.4	16.8	-3.35
Rafael Araujo	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	19	-18	17.2	17.6	-0.41	15.0	15.3	-0.30
Darrick Martin	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	19	-18	17.2	17.6	-0.41	15.0	15.3	-0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.78,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.92,0.93,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 88, LAL 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.7,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,0.97,1	97.6%
IND 75, CLE 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.9,0.89,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%
ORL 78, SAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.8,0.78,0.78,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%