NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	92		Excitement	5.0 [840]		MVP	Robert Horry (SAS): +12.7%
Houston Rockets	77		Comeback	1.9 [316]		LVP	Rafer Alston (HOU): -24.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.05	-0.02	9	60%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.03	17	61%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	71%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	7	44%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Melvin Sanders	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.03	9	56%	0.03	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.02
Brent Barry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	22%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Beno Udrih	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	0.05	8	50%	-0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.03	0.03	6	42%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.01	14	57%	0.10	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.01
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	75%	0.11	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.05	12	69%	0.09	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.00
Rick Brunson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	6	31%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.07
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.04	0.03	10	40%	-0.07	2	-0.06	5	40%	-0.03
Rafer Alston	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.24,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.19	-0.07	-0.02	14	25%	-0.14	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.6	29.1	16.4	24.6	2.8	33.3	132.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +36.9%

HOU -0.3%

HOU -4.2%

SAS +16.7%

SAS +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	17.9	16.0	15.6	108.2	90.6	104.4
season	16.3	16.1		106.0	99.9
opponent	16.1	15.6		101.4	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	20.9	17.0	16.5	17.5	17.9
HOU	16.1	18.1	14.8	15.2	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	66	67	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.09	16	-1	17	18.5	15.8	2.70	15.4	18.1	-2.68
Michael Finley	42	42	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.02	15	0	15	18.8	17.0	1.83	15.6	16.4	-0.75
Rasho Nesterovic	35	36	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.04	17	-2	19	16.9	18.6	-1.74	17.0	15.3	1.69
Bruce Bowen	61	62	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.01	15	0	15	17.0	20.1	-3.12	16.3	15.3	0.95
Tim Duncan	54	54	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.02	12	3	9	18.5	16.8	1.69	16.5	15.1	1.42
Robert Horry	46	46	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.04	12	3	9	17.3	18.5	-1.16	15.6	16.5	-0.95
Brent Barry	29	28	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	14	-13	19.0	17.3	1.70	16.9	15.5	1.38
Melvin Sanders	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	14	-13	15.7	18.0	-2.30	20.5	15.9	4.61
Fabricio Oberto	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	11.0	18.0	-6.96	0.0	16.0	-16.00
Beno Udrih	54	54	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	18	-21	16.9	19.5	-2.57	16.1	15.9	0.15
Nazr Mohammed	34	34	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.19	-11	26	-37	18.9	17.2	1.67	14.7	16.8	-2.11

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dikembe Mutombo	19	19	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-16	17	13.6	16.7	-3.12	18.4	17.7	0.63
Stromile Swift	21	21	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-14	13	16.7	15.8	0.89	20.3	17.1	3.26
Rick Brunson	11	10	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.07	-9	-6	-3	18.7	15.6	3.13	18.9	17.7	1.15
Rafer Alston	83	83	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.09	-10	-5	-5	16.0	15.0	1.02	18.0	13.0	5.00
Juwan Howard	64	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	-1	-13	15.8	16.7	-0.89	17.1	20.3	-3.26
Keith Bogans	79	79	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	-2	-11	15.8	19.0	-3.23	17.7	20.7	-3.00
Yao Ming	66	66	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.04	-16	1	-17	16.7	13.6	3.12	17.7	18.4	-0.63
Luther Head	62	64	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.05	-19	4	-23	15.7	16.7	-1.01	16.9	20.8	-3.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.23,0.15,0.19,0.12,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.13,0.15,0.07,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 97, GSW 85	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.16,0.15,0.18,0.24,0.23,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	94.8%
UTA 85, MEM 79	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.3,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.15,0.19,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0	94.7%
NJN 89, ORL 79	0.5,0.49,0.57,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.21,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.5%