NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	92		Excitement	7.6 [312]		MVP	Bobby Simmons (MIL): +25.7%
Boston Celtics	86		Comeback	3.8 [217]		LVP	Joe Smith (MIL): -22.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Simmons	0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.08	0.17	-0.00	11	64%	0.29	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.04
Jamaal Magloire	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.03	0.01	12	62%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Charlie Bell	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	6	67%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.07,0.05	0.06	0.02	0.02	19	53%	0.08	1	-0.02	11	100%	0.09
Andrew Bogut	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	8	52%	0.07	2	-0.06	5	20%	-0.10
Jermaine Jackson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	10	46%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Joe Smith	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.13	-0.10	-0.00	9	11%	-0.18	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.15,0.08,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.03	0.00	12	59%	0.09	1	-0.03	17	71%	-0.20
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	15	53%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	9	47%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	15	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Orien Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.08	0.02	9	40%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.5	29.5	15.8	28.7	1.8	40.0	142.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +25.3%

MIL +9.4%

MIL +26.4%

BOS -6.9%

BOS -4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	BOS	NBA	MIL	BOS	NBA
this game	17.2	16.1	15.6	108.2	97.7	104.4
season	15.5	14.8		104.6	103.3
opponent	15.8	15.5		104.8	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.4	18.0	16.3	19.4	17.2
BOS	15.9	16.2	17.2	15.1	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Redd	74	76	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.39	11	-5	16	16.8	19.9	-3.08	16.2	15.6	0.59
Charlie Bell	39	42	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.34	8	-2	10	18.8	15.8	3.00	15.6	16.6	-0.99
Joe Smith	37	41	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.39	6	0	6	18.2	16.5	1.66	16.6	15.6	0.97
Andrew Bogut	67	68	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.31	8	-2	10	17.2	17.2	0.00	15.7	17.4	-1.76
Bobby Simmons	73	76	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.32	2	4	-2	17.3	16.7	0.55	15.7	18.2	-2.50
Jamaal Magloire	55	55	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.06	2	4	-2	16.3	18.8	-2.49	16.1	16.1	-0.05
T.J. Ford	61	63	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.14	3	3	0	16.6	18.8	-2.24	15.9	16.6	-0.77
Dan Gadzuric	10	10	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	10	-14	17.7	17.2	0.54	19.6	15.6	3.96
Jermaine Jackson	9	9	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	12	-18	18.1	17.1	0.99	19.1	15.7	3.36

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Scalabrine	22	21	0.28	-0.78	1.05	-0.02	10	-16	26	15.5	16.3	-0.79	19.1	16.6	2.49
Gerald Green	11	12	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.03	3	-9	12	17.8	15.8	1.97	18.3	17.0	1.29
Tony Allen	35	34	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.02	3	-9	12	16.1	16.1	-0.06	17.4	17.1	0.26
Al Jefferson	30	27	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-4	2	17.5	15.4	2.09	17.6	17.0	0.60
Raef LaFrentz	57	56	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-4	2	15.6	16.9	-1.25	17.2	17.3	-0.13
Wally Szczerbiak	67	65	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.27	-6	0	-6	15.9	16.9	-1.01	17.5	16.4	1.08
Orien Greene	73	70	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.35	-9	3	-12	15.9	17.2	-1.34	16.9	18.7	-1.83
Paul Pierce	79	76	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.38	-11	5	-16	16.1	16.2	-0.15	16.9	19.6	-2.61
Ryan Gomes	66	64	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.31	-16	10	-26	16.3	15.5	0.79	16.6	19.1	-2.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.75,0.72,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.28,0.23,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 89, DET 78	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.54,0.38,0.23,0.1,0,0	92.2%
UTA 96, HOU 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.7,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.75,0.54,0.7,0.79,0.82,0.63,0.69,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.24,0.04,0	92.1%
MIN 94, SAC 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.02,0	91.8%