NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	106		Excitement	7.5 [348]		MVP	Josh Smith (ATL): +19.5%
Atlanta Hawks	113		Comeback	4.1 [693]		LVP	Mike Dunleavy (GSW): -17.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.19	0.00	0.09	29	63%	0.15	2	-0.05	9	67%	-0.02
Adonal Foyle	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	6	50%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04	0.01	-0.00	-0.03	10	45%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ike Diogu	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andris Biedrins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Baron Davis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	10	45%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	6	50%	0.05	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	9	55%	0.04	4	-0.15	4	50%	-0.03
Mike Dunleavy	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.01	-0.09	0.07	11	46%	-0.10	2	-0.07	6	83%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.03	0.14	-0.03	7	71%	0.24	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Salim Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.08	0.02	4	75%	0.17	2	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	7	58%	0.06	0	0.00	10	80%	0.02
Al Harrington	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	15	54%	0.08	3	-0.08	9	44%	-0.03
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	10	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Esteban Batista	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Donta Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	8	25%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.05,0,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	0.10	-0.13	0.10	27	66%	0.16	7	-0.29	10	100%	0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.5	28.3	15.7	30.0	2.6	44.7	148.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +25.6%

ATL +5.3%

ATL +25.2%

GSW -7.8%

ATL +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	ATL	NBA	GSW	ATL	NBA
this game	13.7	14.9	15.6	105.0	113.0	104.4
season	14.8	15.6		102.9	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		109.3	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.3	13.2	12.5	13.7	13.7
ATL	13.5	16.2	18.0	12.4	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	43	43	0.22	-0.72	0.94	-0.13	12	-19	31	13.8	13.6	0.18	16.2	14.0	2.21
Mike Dunleavy	71	71	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.03	5	-12	17	13.4	14.4	-0.98	15.2	14.4	0.71
Ike Diogu	9	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-7	7	12.9	13.8	-0.90	18.1	14.6	3.50
Monta Ellis	24	23	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.01	-6	-1	-5	10.0	14.9	-4.92	12.9	15.6	-2.70
Andris Biedrins	15	16	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-5	3	15.3	13.4	1.82	14.2	15.1	-0.83
Mickael Pietrus	55	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.13	-5	-2	-3	13.8	13.6	0.19	13.8	16.3	-2.51
Adonal Foyle	66	64	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.08	-7	0	-7	14.8	11.7	3.06	15.5	13.9	1.57
Jason Richardson	91	90	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.32	-8	1	-9	13.7	13.7	0.01	14.5	18.8	-4.28
Troy Murphy	69	69	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.39	-7	0	-7	14.1	12.8	1.36	15.8	13.2	2.59
Derek Fisher	62	60	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.24	-17	10	-27	13.5	14.1	-0.59	14.4	15.7	-1.33

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	80	82	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.37	7	0	7	14.5	16.9	-2.44	13.7	13.9	-0.29
Zaza Pachulia	81	84	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.21	11	-4	15	16.0	10.6	5.33	14.5	9.7	4.82
Joe Johnson	100	101	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	14.9	0.0	14.95	13.7	0.0	13.71
Royal Ivey	51	52	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.11	15	-8	23	16.1	13.8	2.26	14.0	13.4	0.59
Salim Stoudamire	44	45	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	7	-7	14.1	15.6	-1.49	13.4	13.9	-0.48
Josh Smith	67	67	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.22	1	6	-5	13.1	18.6	-5.50	13.2	14.7	-1.45
Marvin Williams	60	60	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.19	-5	12	-17	15.6	13.9	1.75	13.1	14.6	-1.43
Donta Smith	6	5	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.02	1	6	-5	19.3	14.7	4.66	10.8	13.9	-3.06
Esteban Batista	11	9	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.03	-2	9	-11	14.1	15.1	-0.97	15.4	13.5	1.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.41,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.22,0.28,0.36,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.8,0.72,0.75,0.96,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 85, WAS 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.69,0.71,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.99,1	92.8%
MIL 104, SAC 111	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.78,0.89,0.98,0.99,1,1	92.8%
CLE 71, PHI 80	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.87,0.93,0.98,0.98,1	92.5%