NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	102		Excitement	5.4 [755]		MVP	Brad Miller (SAC): +18.4%
Atlanta Hawks	93		Comeback	1.7 [353]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -12.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brad Miller	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.07	-0.03	18	53%	0.21	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.01
Kevin Martin	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.05	0.03	13	63%	0.13	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	0.00	6	55%	0.08	2	-0.05	10	80%	0.02
Metta World Peace	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	16	51%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Jason Hart	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	3	37%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	0.01	0.05	15	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Kenny Thomas	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	5	50%	0.02	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	9	77%	0.18	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.02
Salim Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.02	-0.02	11	58%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	64%	0.03	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
John Edwards	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	0.05	0.01	0.06	20	51%	0.03	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Esteban Batista	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	4	30%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.01	-0.08	0.04	16	56%	0.00	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.06	0.04	7	50%	-0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.0	30.5	15.8	25.4	2.4	34.5	137.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +14.3%

SAC +17.6%

SAC +3.9%

SAC +12.9%

SAC +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	ATL	NBA	SAC	ATL	NBA
this game	16.3	15.4	15.6	112.1	102.2	104.4
season	15.3	15.6		104.7	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		109.3	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	16.6	16.5	15.4	16.7	16.3
ATL	14.7	16.3	15.2	15.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	72	72	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.25	12	-3	15	16.2	16.5	-0.25	15.6	14.5	1.14
Mike Bibby	80	80	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.22	9	0	9	15.9	18.8	-2.89	15.3	15.8	-0.51
Metta World Peace	75	75	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.15	8	1	7	16.4	15.7	0.64	14.9	17.4	-2.50
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	43	44	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.06	9	0	9	15.4	17.0	-1.58	16.4	14.4	1.92
Bonzi Wells	38	38	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.02	10	-1	11	14.6	17.5	-2.91	15.9	15.0	0.89
Kevin Martin	69	69	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	9	-9	17.1	13.7	3.36	15.6	14.8	0.79
Kenny Thomas	67	66	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.16	-3	12	-15	16.9	14.6	2.24	14.5	17.8	-3.35
Jason Hart	11	11	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	9	-9	18.8	15.9	2.89	15.8	15.3	0.51

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Royal Ivey	17	18	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-11	13	13.4	15.8	-2.41	16.6	16.2	0.42
Zaza Pachulia	44	44	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.17	4	-13	17	16.5	14.3	2.14	17.8	14.8	2.99
Esteban Batista	10	10	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.08	-7	-2	-5	14.7	15.5	-0.76	16.1	16.3	-0.20
Josh Childress	45	44	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.02	-5	-4	-1	15.2	15.5	-0.34	15.1	17.4	-2.25
John Edwards	10	9	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.04	-8	-1	-7	18.6	15.0	3.62	11.9	16.8	-4.87
Marvin Williams	49	50	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-7	5	13.6	17.4	-3.77	15.1	17.7	-2.61
Salim Stoudamire	58	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.16	-6	-3	-3	15.1	15.9	-0.89	15.7	17.2	-1.44
Al Harrington	78	78	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.42	2	-11	13	15.7	13.4	2.32	16.9	12.2	4.72
Josh Smith	62	63	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	1	-11	16.0	14.1	1.86	17.3	14.0	3.34
Joe Johnson	82	82	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.18	-15	6	-21	15.5	14.4	1.03	16.2	17.3	-1.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.3,0.26,0.17,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 109, HOU 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.21,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
PHX 103, WAS 87	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.24,0.23,0.14,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	93.9%
IND 100, NJN 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.24,0.18,0.22,0.29,0.26,0.31,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.05,0	93.8%