NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	99		Excitement	3.5 [1121]		MVP	Steve Nash (PHX): +10.5%
Phoenix Suns	112		Comeback	1.0 [1259]		LVP	Baron Davis (GSW): -7.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	-0.00	-0.04	14	54%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ike Diogu	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	0.01	0.06	9	62%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Zarko Cabarkapa	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	10	45%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andris Biedrins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	0.00	0.06	12	54%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Jason Richardson	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	14	39%	-0.01	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Troy Murphy	-0.06	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	13	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Monta Ellis	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	23	42%	-0.04	3	-0.04	6	50%	-0.03

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.00	-0.09	12	77%	0.17	7	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.02	11	62%	0.10	1	-0.01	2	100%	-0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	-0.00	0.03	17	62%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.00	0.02	14	69%	0.11	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.01	0.03	9	68%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Raja Bell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	13	57%	0.07	2	-0.02	4	50%	0.00
Pat Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.11	0.00	-0.08	7	12%	-0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	26.8	14.8	23.1	2.0	23.4	116.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +58.9%

PHX +2.9%

GSW -10.3%

GSW -2.6%

PHX +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	PHX	NBA	GSW	PHX	NBA
this game	15.1	13.0	15.6	97.1	108.7	104.4
season	14.8	13.8		102.9	110.2
opponent	16.1	15.5		105.8	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.6	16.7	16.0	14.1	15.1
PHX	11.7	11.0	12.8	17.2	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andris Biedrins	10	12	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.04	-2	-11	9	13.0	15.3	-2.28	13.8	12.9	0.89
Monta Ellis	23	26	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.11	-5	-8	3	15.4	14.9	0.49	12.7	13.2	-0.43
Zarko Cabarkapa	46	48	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.21	4	-17	21	13.9	16.0	-2.17	14.0	12.2	1.74
Derek Fisher	67	68	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.25	3	-16	19	14.1	16.8	-2.65	13.3	12.6	0.68
Troy Murphy	60	60	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.07	-16	3	-19	15.8	14.0	1.88	12.5	13.8	-1.31
Ike Diogu	57	55	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.05	-12	-1	-11	15.4	14.6	0.86	12.9	13.2	-0.30
Baron Davis	81	80	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.20	-7	-6	-1	15.0	15.2	-0.17	13.8	10.5	3.25
Jason Richardson	85	84	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.26	-6	-7	1	15.3	14.0	1.27	12.7	14.5	-1.81
Mike Dunleavy	81	82	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.16	-24	11	-35	15.6	13.0	2.65	12.4	15.5	-3.05

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Nash	82	83	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.10	23	-10	33	12.7	14.2	-1.49	15.6	12.7	2.92
Shawn Marion	88	88	0.55	-0.05	0.59	-0.13	23	-10	33	13.0	13.3	-0.33	15.6	11.6	4.04
Kurt Thomas	69	70	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.14	10	3	7	13.0	13.2	-0.28	15.9	13.3	2.59
Boris Diaw	64	63	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.06	17	-4	21	12.8	13.5	-0.75	14.7	15.6	-0.90
Raja Bell	83	80	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.14	8	5	3	12.7	14.6	-1.99	14.9	15.5	-0.56
James Jones	70	69	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.29	-5	18	-23	14.1	10.8	3.28	14.2	16.9	-2.69
Eddie House	48	47	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.21	-5	18	-23	13.6	12.6	1.00	14.6	15.4	-0.78
Pat Burke	11	10	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.10	-6	19	-25	11.8	13.2	-1.38	11.1	15.5	-4.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 85, UTA 94	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.76,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.9,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%
BOS 92, WAS 118	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.81,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
ORL 82, TOR 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%