NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	91		Excitement	4.9 [858]		MVP	Nenad Krstic (NJN): +8.7%
San Antonio Spurs	96		Comeback	1.4 [990]		LVP	Vince Carter (NJN): -15.0%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nenad Krstic	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	10	67%	0.11	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	10	43%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Marc Jackson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamond Murray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	0.00	0.04	3	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	7	43%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	15	50%	0.06	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.15	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	0.02	-0.06	0.10	29	49%	-0.06	4	-0.09	11	82%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.06	-0.03	16	57%	0.20	6	-0.12	15	87%	0.04
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	5	50%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.02	0.02	5	80%	0.10	3	-0.06	10	80%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.04	5	75%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	8	43%	0.00	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	12	60%	0.09	6	-0.13	6	33%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.7	29.1	17.8	25.2	2.4	45.0	147.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +31.7%

SAS +11.6%

SAS +12.5%

NJN -6.6%

SAS +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	SAS	NBA	NJN	SAS	NBA
this game	15.1	15.4	15.6	96.8	101.1	104.4
season	15.7	16.3		102.1	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.7		99.4	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	17.2	17.8	14.3	12.0	15.1
SAS	15.5	15.7	16.3	14.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marc Jackson	3	4	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-4	3	19.7	14.9	4.73	12.0	15.5	-3.54
Nenad Krstic	54	55	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.06	-3	-2	-1	14.6	15.7	-1.07	16.7	13.5	3.18
Clifford Robinson	38	37	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.33	3	-8	11	15.3	14.9	0.34	13.7	16.5	-2.76
Scott Padgett	21	22	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-4	3	16.0	14.8	1.18	15.3	15.4	-0.09
Lamond Murray	33	34	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.30	0	-5	5	15.1	15.1	0.01	14.1	16.1	-2.03
Vince Carter	81	82	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.32	0	-5	5	15.1	14.9	0.19	15.3	15.7	-0.35
Jason Collins	72	72	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.11	-8	3	-11	14.9	15.8	-0.96	15.4	15.2	0.23
Jason Kidd	82	81	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-1	-3	14.4	19.7	-5.35	15.3	16.1	-0.80
Jacque Vaughn	86	88	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.15	-11	6	-17	15.7	8.4	7.33	16.0	7.1	8.90

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	38	36	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.05	15	-10	25	15.2	15.5	-0.30	15.3	15.0	0.31
Tony Parker	79	80	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.28	6	-1	7	15.3	15.9	-0.66	14.6	17.9	-3.34
Manu Ginobili	54	54	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.14	9	-4	13	14.3	16.8	-2.49	15.5	14.5	0.93
Tim Duncan	76	77	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.12	7	-2	9	16.1	12.7	3.38	15.0	15.4	-0.40
Brent Barry	18	16	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.13	4	1	3	12.1	16.2	-4.04	16.2	14.9	1.33
Bruce Bowen	66	67	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.45	-8	13	-21	16.3	13.4	2.89	15.4	14.4	0.95
Michael Finley	59	57	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	3	-1	16.0	14.4	1.57	14.1	16.6	-2.49
Nazr Mohammed	11	10	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.02	2	3	-1	13.1	15.7	-2.60	17.5	14.8	2.70
Nick Van Exel	17	15	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.10	-1	6	-7	15.5	15.4	0.10	16.7	14.8	1.96
Rasho Nesterovic	56	57	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.24	-7	12	-19	15.9	14.7	1.14	15.1	15.1	0.01
Fabricio Oberto	1	1	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	9	-13	1.0	15.5	-14.54	3.0	15.2	-12.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.88,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 80, IND 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.73,0.61,0.64,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.81,0.94,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
MIA 86, HOU 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.84,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,1,1,1	94.6%
PHX 92, MIN 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.69,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.73,0.78,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.89,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%