NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	90		Excitement	7.0 [450]		MVP	Michael Finley (SAS): +21.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	88		Comeback	1.9 [307]		LVP	Marko Jaric (MIN): -17.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.23,0.21,0.21	0.11	0.09	-0.01	13	68%	0.24	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.01
Brent Barry	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16	0.05	0.10	-0.01	7	63%	0.20	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.03
Bruce Bowen	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.05	0.00	8	75%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	5	58%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	11	48%	0.05	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.01	15	35%	-0.05	2	-0.11	7	43%	-0.08

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.09	0.01	16	59%	0.22	3	-0.07	7	100%	0.05
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	8	57%	0.12	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Olowokandi	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	39%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.08	-0.08	0.05	-0.13	0.01	19	57%	-0.03	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	1	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.10	-0.00	11	46%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.18	-0.17	-0.07	-0.11	-0.00	13	39%	-0.13	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.17

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.0	2.4	26.6	15.5	23.3	3.3	41.6	133.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +91.8%

MIN -20.4%

MIN -21.0%

MIN -4.6%

SAS +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIN	NBA	SAS	MIN	NBA
this game	16.6	17.5	15.6	105.9	104.8	104.4
season	16.3	16.1		106.0	101.0
opponent	15.9	15.6		103.1	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.1	14.6	17.4	16.2	16.6
MIN	17.9	20.7	14.5	17.3	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	67	67	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.30	10	-8	18	16.1	18.4	-2.37	18.0	15.5	2.56
Bruce Bowen	75	75	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.47	-2	4	-6	16.9	14.1	2.81	17.3	19.0	-1.67
Tim Duncan	65	65	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	1	0	17.1	15.0	2.06	17.9	16.2	1.75
Nick Van Exel	25	24	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	-8	18	17.3	16.3	1.00	18.0	17.3	0.74
Rasho Nesterovic	27	28	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.01	9	-7	16	17.7	16.0	1.71	19.3	16.6	2.71
Brent Barry	51	48	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.47	-7	9	-16	15.6	18.0	-2.42	16.7	18.6	-1.83
Robert Horry	26	24	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.08	2	0	2	16.2	16.7	-0.50	16.8	17.8	-0.95
Tony Parker	64	64	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.42	-10	12	-22	16.5	16.8	-0.25	17.1	18.7	-1.56
Nazr Mohammed	25	25	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	5	-8	16.2	16.7	-0.53	16.2	18.1	-1.87

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	16	15	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.22	7	-9	16	17.2	17.6	-0.40	15.9	16.7	-0.86
Kevin Garnett	68	71	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.43	9	-11	20	17.2	18.7	-1.53	16.8	15.6	1.12
Trenton Hassell	56	57	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.28	3	-5	8	16.7	19.2	-2.55	16.9	15.9	0.97
Troy Hudson	45	48	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.47	7	-9	16	16.4	18.7	-2.30	15.8	17.5	-1.71
Rashad McCants	15	16	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.06	-12	10	-22	20.2	16.9	3.27	15.5	16.8	-1.33
Eddie Griffin	21	21	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.03	-9	7	-16	18.6	17.1	1.48	15.3	17.0	-1.65
Marko Jaric	71	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.46	2	-4	6	17.6	16.8	0.88	17.0	14.4	2.64
Michael Olowokandi	48	46	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.06	-17	15	-32	18.6	16.0	2.65	17.3	15.7	1.54
Wally Szczerbiak	80	81	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.45	0	-2	2	17.4	19.2	-1.82	16.5	18.2	-1.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.11,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.17,0.25,0.15,0.04,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 75, ORL 68	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.2,0.23,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.12,0.11,0.16,0.17,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.02,0,0	94.3%
CLE 117, DEN 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.2,0.24,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.13,0.19,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.03,0.09,0	93.4%
IND 95, LAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.44,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.08,0	93.0%