NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	78		Excitement	6.1 [595]		MVP	Mehmet Okur (UTA): +14.1%
Utah Jazz	92		Comeback	5.9 [416]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -18.6%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Evans	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	3	83%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	15	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.00	7	75%	0.11	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	13	46%	0.04	2	-0.04	9	89%	0.04
Darko Milicic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Delfino	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	13	40%	-0.02	2	-0.07	9	89%	0.02
Tayshaun Prince	-0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.11	-0.05	0.02	12	36%	-0.10	3	-0.09	4	0%	-0.09

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.10	0.00	17	60%	0.22	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.05
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.06	0.01	16	56%	0.15	2	-0.06	7	43%	-0.07
Andre Owens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	10	50%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarron Collins	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	36%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	10	41%	-0.00	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	5	47%	-0.02	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.02
Keith McLeod	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	5	-0.14	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.6	29.2	15.6	29.7	1.8	30.2	133.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +23.4%

UTA +6.0%

UTA +29.9%

DET -2.4%

DET -6.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	UTA	NBA	DET	UTA	NBA
this game	16.7	17.0	15.6	91.8	107.0	104.4
season	16.9	17.0		108.3	101.7
opponent	15.0	15.8		104.6	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.5	17.8	15.6	18.3	16.7
UTA	16.5	18.1	13.8	20.7	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Delfino	8	8	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-14	14	17.7	16.5	1.20	17.4	17.0	0.39
Darko Milicic	0	1	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.01	0	-14	14	0.0	16.7	-16.66	17.0	17.0	-0.02
Maurice Evans	25	27	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.11	4	-18	22	16.4	16.7	-0.31	18.9	16.2	2.67
Antonio McDyess	36	36	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-11	8	16.4	16.9	-0.52	17.2	16.9	0.39
Carlos Arroyo	23	24	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.15	0	-14	14	17.5	16.3	1.18	17.4	16.9	0.49
Tayshaun Prince	67	67	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.06	-12	-2	-10	15.9	19.3	-3.39	16.6	18.5	-1.93
Ben Wallace	65	67	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	-11	-3	-8	15.7	19.6	-3.91	17.1	16.9	0.16
Chauncey Billups	62	62	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.06	-14	0	-14	16.3	17.5	-1.18	16.9	17.4	-0.49
Rasheed Wallace	69	68	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.12	-14	0	-14	17.7	12.2	5.43	16.9	17.6	-0.74
Richard Hamilton	70	70	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.15	-20	6	-26	17.3	13.7	3.63	16.7	18.5	-1.81

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Milt Palacio	47	49	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.08	25	-11	36	17.1	16.9	0.23	18.6	14.1	4.52
Jarron Collins	60	62	0.81	-0.31	1.12	-0.01	28	-14	42	18.3	14.2	4.11	16.6	16.7	-0.11
Andrei Kirilenko	75	75	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.06	18	-4	22	16.8	18.4	-1.54	16.8	15.4	1.43
Matt Harpring	44	42	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.10	16	-2	18	18.6	15.4	3.21	16.0	17.3	-1.30
Mehmet Okur	85	84	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.10	14	0	14	16.7	48.0	-31.34	16.5	29.0	-12.49
Devin Brown	47	48	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.05	1	13	-12	15.6	18.7	-3.15	17.5	15.5	1.98
Greg Ostertag	4	4	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	18	-22	15.5	17.1	-1.60	18.0	16.6	1.41
Andre Owens	13	10	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.06	-7	21	-28	17.6	16.9	0.70	12.7	17.2	-4.49
Kris Humphries	16	15	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.04	-10	24	-34	15.0	17.5	-2.49	18.1	16.3	1.79
Keith McLeod	39	36	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	0.01	-11	25	-36	16.9	17.1	-0.23	14.1	18.6	-4.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.34,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.29,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.63,0.74,0.85,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 85, GSW 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.26,0.29,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.52,0.52,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.48,0.63,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	92.6%
BOS 94, PHI 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.47,0.42,0.62,0.63,0.8,0.93,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.92,1	92.5%
CLE 88, PHX 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.63,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.89,0.99,1,0.98,1	92.3%