NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	110		Excitement	5.0 [842]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +10.4%
Orlando Magic	85		Comeback	1.5 [473]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -14.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.01	17	60%	0.17	2	-0.06	9	89%	0.02
Robert Horry	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	9	82%	0.15	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	6	58%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	57%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Michael Finley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	6	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Beno Udrih	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	0.00	0.06	3	78%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.01	0.05	11	71%	0.11	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.02
Brent Barry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.00	3	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.03
Nick Van Exel	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Diener	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	5	90%	0.05	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	12	54%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.01	4	70%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terence Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.04	17	54%	0.04	2	-0.09	3	100%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	12	41%	0.03	4	-0.12	3	100%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.06	-0.03	18	31%	-0.08	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.7	32.8	15.0	27.0	2.5	30.5	136.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +45.9%

ORL -3.8%

ORL -6.5%

SAS +9.9%

SAS +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ORL	NBA	SAS	ORL	NBA
this game	15.1	15.7	15.6	115.8	92.4	104.4
season	16.3	16.4		106.0	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.6		105.9	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.9	13.2	18.4	13.8	15.1
ORL	16.1	14.0	16.7	16.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	55	56	0.54	-0.04	0.59	-0.22	26	-1	27	16.0	13.9	2.06	16.6	14.3	2.28
Bruce Bowen	60	61	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.10	18	7	11	16.1	13.5	2.63	16.4	14.3	2.12
Tim Duncan	69	67	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.07	15	10	5	14.9	15.6	-0.69	15.8	15.4	0.35
Robert Horry	42	42	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.11	15	10	5	14.5	15.6	-1.19	14.9	16.4	-1.54
Rasho Nesterovic	36	36	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.04	7	18	-11	16.4	14.3	2.14	17.1	14.8	2.28
Manu Ginobili	43	41	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.14	13	12	1	14.4	15.7	-1.36	15.9	15.5	0.33
Michael Finley	56	55	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.00	8	17	-9	15.6	14.4	1.15	15.3	16.3	-1.01
Brent Barry	33	29	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.28	13	12	1	13.3	16.1	-2.82	14.6	16.2	-1.62
Nazr Mohammed	32	28	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	22	-19	15.3	15.0	0.30	15.5	15.8	-0.23
Fabricio Oberto	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	21	-17	14.7	15.1	-0.48	15.5	15.7	-0.21
Nick Van Exel	26	23	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.08	-3	28	-31	13.7	15.6	-1.91	15.0	15.9	-0.93
Beno Udrih	17	16	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.21	6	19	-13	14.3	15.3	-1.00	12.8	16.3	-3.49

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelvin Cato	23	23	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-28	31	14.4	16.1	-1.68	14.5	15.3	-0.78
Bo Outlaw	5	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	-21	17	17.6	15.6	2.01	14.7	15.1	-0.48
Terence Morris	5	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	-21	17	17.6	15.6	2.01	14.7	15.1	-0.48
Stacey Augmon	20	23	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.12	-5	-20	15	14.7	16.0	-1.21	12.9	15.8	-2.96
Travis Diener	39	41	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.32	-14	-11	-3	15.3	16.0	-0.67	13.7	16.2	-2.43
Pat Garrity	35	36	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.13	-10	-15	5	16.1	15.4	0.72	14.7	15.3	-0.59
DeShawn Stevenson	72	70	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-8	-17	9	15.6	15.9	-0.32	15.9	13.0	2.87
Dwight Howard	70	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.13	-18	-7	-11	15.9	14.9	1.03	15.4	14.3	1.07
Tony Battie	44	45	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.01	-14	-11	-3	15.8	15.6	0.15	15.4	14.8	0.62
Jameer Nelson	68	69	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	0.26	-25	0	-25	16.2	14.4	1.79	15.6	13.7	1.91
Hedo Turkoglu	79	82	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	0.15	-26	1	-27	15.5	17.2	-1.70	15.4	13.6	1.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.23,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.07,0.03,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 111, BKN 93	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.17,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
PHI 102, DET 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.11,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%
IND 99, CLE 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.2,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.7%