NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	108		Excitement	9.4 [111]		MVP	Earl Boykins (DEN): +40.8%
Washington Wizards	105		Comeback	5.3 [145]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -31.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.41,0.41	0.13	0.27	-0.00	12	77%	0.47	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Marcus Camby	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15	0.07	0.10	0.02	15	71%	0.25	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Carmelo Anthony	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.22,0.12,0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.01	17	50%	0.14	1	-0.03	22	82%	0.12
Eduardo Najera	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.00	6	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Greg Buckner	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.02	6	83%	0.10	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	45%	0.08	1	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Linas Kleiza	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.32	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.31,-0.31,-0.41,-0.32	-0.19	-0.12	-0.00	11	31%	-0.12	6	-0.20	4	50%	-0.05

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.08	0.14	0.00	3	83%	0.22	0	0.00	6	67%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.07	0.00	11	68%	0.18	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.22,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,0.01,0.01,0.11	0.11	-0.03	0.14	0.00	24	49%	0.25	4	-0.14	5	60%	-0.04
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.25,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.07,0.04	0.04	0.14	-0.09	0.01	25	55%	0.06	1	-0.02	15	80%	-0.00
Awvee Storey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	7	62%	0.02	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	5	25%	-0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.19	-0.08	-0.00	10	5%	-0.22	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.3	29.3	16.5	31.3	2.5	43.3	151.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +38.3%

DEN +16.1%

DEN +11.8%

WAS -20.2%

DEN +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	WAS	NBA	DEN	WAS	NBA
this game	14.2	13.8	15.6	104.9	101.9	104.4
season	14.4	15.1		103.5	107.4
opponent	15.6	15.9		105.5	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.3	16.8	13.6	13.2	14.2
WAS	14.3	13.9	12.1	15.0	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Boykins	49	51	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.35	6	-3	9	13.9	14.4	-0.43	14.3	13.3	1.06
Carmelo Anthony	83	84	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.33	4	-1	5	14.2	14.2	-0.04	13.6	14.6	-0.96
Earl Watson	41	39	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.26	4	-1	5	13.7	14.5	-0.84	15.6	12.7	2.85
Eduardo Najera	51	51	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.44	-3	6	-9	14.5	13.9	0.57	12.9	14.6	-1.69
Greg Buckner	65	63	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.14	7	-4	11	14.0	14.5	-0.57	14.1	13.3	0.77
Francisco Elson	46	47	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.05	10	-7	17	12.9	15.2	-2.26	14.8	12.9	1.86
Marcus Camby	77	78	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.32	-3	6	-9	14.3	13.7	0.63	13.3	15.4	-2.07
Andre Miller	70	68	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.20	-5	8	-13	14.9	12.5	2.38	13.3	14.8	-1.52
Linas Kleiza	14	15	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	3	-3	14.9	14.0	0.88	13.1	13.9	-0.85
DerMarr Johnson	19	19	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.06	-5	8	-13	14.8	14.0	0.83	12.8	14.0	-1.23

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Calvin Booth	12	12	0.16	-0.66	0.81	0.04	4	-7	11	12.3	14.0	-1.66	17.2	13.8	3.40
Caron Butler	46	45	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.23	7	-10	17	13.2	14.3	-1.16	14.0	14.3	-0.25
Brendan Haywood	41	41	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.06	-3	0	-3	14.2	13.5	0.74	14.9	13.7	1.18
Michael Ruffin	23	22	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.02	-2	-1	-1	13.3	13.9	-0.63	13.1	14.4	-1.31
Awvee Storey	5	5	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.06	-6	3	-9	20.8	13.4	7.36	9.0	14.4	-5.43
Antonio Daniels	46	45	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-3	3	14.5	13.2	1.27	14.5	13.9	0.61
Gilbert Arenas	98	98	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.47	3	-6	9	13.4	20.8	-7.36	14.4	9.0	5.43
Jarvis Hayes	67	69	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	1	-5	13.3	14.7	-1.47	13.8	15.0	-1.20
Etan Thomas	43	41	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.34	-3	0	-3	14.3	13.4	0.95	14.0	14.2	-0.19
Antawn Jamison	85	87	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.41	-2	-1	-1	14.0	12.9	1.10	14.5	12.5	1.97
Jared Jeffries	49	50	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.30	-9	6	-15	13.8	13.8	0.08	13.2	15.0	-1.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.66,0.63,0.82,0.62,0.48,0.53,0.38,0.47,0.31,0.54,0.22,0.14,0.28,0.33,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 91, CHI 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.47,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.16,0	92.1%
MEM 90, BOS 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.27,0.35,0.28,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.61,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.54,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.22,0.14,0.36,0.45,0.15,0	91.5%
CLE 100, DEN 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.14,0.04,0	90.9%