NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	79		Excitement	4.2 [1000]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +16.3%
San Antonio Spurs	103		Comeback	4.3 [684]		LVP	Al Harrington (ATL): -11.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Edwards	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	6	67%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	25%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	12	43%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Marvin Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	2	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	5	60%	0.04	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	7	28%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Salim Stoudamire	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	9	61%	0.02	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	5	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	22	48%	0.02	5	-0.14	4	25%	-0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.15	0.03	0.01	14	77%	0.21	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.17	0.03	0.04	13	77%	0.18	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Tony Parker	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.01	-0.01	12	56%	0.10	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.03
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	6	36%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	9	44%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.03	5	60%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Sanders	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	7	31%	-0.06	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	31.4	17.5	24.6	2.6	29.0	130.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +22.0%

SAS +7.5%

SAS +0.8%

SAS +21.0%

ATL -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	SAS	NBA	ATL	SAS	NBA
this game	17.2	16.7	15.6	91.9	122.6	104.4
season	15.6	16.3		103.9	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		99.4	109.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.8	17.8	19.6	15.8	17.2
SAS	20.2	14.1	18.3	14.8	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Royal Ivey	11	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-21	18	12.9	17.8	-4.90	15.8	16.8	-1.01
John Edwards	44	43	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.15	-7	-17	10	15.1	19.4	-4.29	16.9	16.5	0.44
Marvin Williams	48	45	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.17	-11	-13	2	16.4	18.2	-1.84	15.5	18.1	-2.64
Salim Stoudamire	42	40	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.10	-10	-14	4	16.5	17.9	-1.39	16.9	16.5	0.35
Josh Childress	48	47	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	-15	6	16.9	17.6	-0.70	17.6	15.5	2.10
Tyronn Lue	40	41	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.04	-7	-17	10	18.1	16.4	1.71	15.8	17.6	-1.78
Josh Smith	40	40	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.36	-22	-2	-20	17.0	17.3	-0.35	14.4	18.7	-4.28
Zaza Pachulia	35	34	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.01	-14	-10	-4	20.0	15.3	4.75	16.9	16.5	0.37
Al Harrington	59	57	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.09	-18	-6	-12	17.9	15.7	2.16	17.9	14.2	3.64
Joe Johnson	63	63	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.04	-19	-5	-14	18.1	14.8	3.28	17.6	14.0	3.59

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	28	30	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.15	24	0	24	15.4	17.3	-1.95	19.1	16.1	2.99
Manu Ginobili	51	51	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.22	24	0	24	15.9	18.0	-2.11	18.4	15.4	3.06
Tony Parker	62	62	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.05	12	12	0	16.8	16.4	0.44	18.2	14.7	3.49
Tim Duncan	51	53	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.02	14	10	4	16.6	16.8	-0.16	18.7	14.7	3.99
Fabricio Oberto	39	38	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.21	17	7	10	15.3	17.9	-2.68	16.4	17.8	-1.42
Nick Van Exel	34	36	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.12	12	12	0	17.4	16.2	1.21	16.5	17.7	-1.23
Bruce Bowen	39	39	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.12	11	13	-2	16.0	17.3	-1.29	18.6	16.0	2.57
Melvin Sanders	32	33	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	24	-24	18.1	15.8	2.22	14.8	18.6	-3.79
Nazr Mohammed	11	12	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	25	-26	19.1	16.3	2.76	13.8	17.7	-3.90
Beno Udrih	16	18	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.11	2	22	-20	18.2	16.3	1.93	13.8	18.1	-4.31
Rasho Nesterovic	19	18	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.04	-2	26	-28	18.7	16.1	2.58	14.9	17.8	-2.83
Sean Marks	16	17	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.02	-6	30	-36	20.2	15.9	4.40	13.8	18.0	-4.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.2,0.26,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.66,0.75,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.84,0.89,0.89,0.89,0.85,0.95,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 101, SAC 115	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.32,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.72,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.85,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
PHI 93, WAS 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
DAL 74, CLE 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.28,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.2,0.21,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.82,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%