NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	84		Excitement	7.6 [316]		MVP	Jason Williams (MIA): +14.1%
Miami Heat	88		Comeback	6.1 [333]		LVP	Rafer Alston (HOU): -17.8%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Wesley	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.09	0.01	2	100%	0.15	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Yao Ming	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	20	51%	0.10	1	-0.01	7	57%	-0.03
Luther Head	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Juwan Howard	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	7	69%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Dikembe Mutombo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Stromile Swift	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	12	44%	0.01	1	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.16,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	0.05	17	48%	0.00	5	-0.11	8	75%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.11	-0.07	-0.00	9	17%	-0.10	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.1,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.16,0.14,0.14	0.14	-0.01	0.14	-0.01	12	50%	0.20	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Wayne Simien	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	7	41%	0.05	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	23	48%	0.06	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	8	44%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	7	43%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	10	59%	0.08	6	-0.17	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.6	3.5	29.8	19.6	26.7	2.8	40.2	154.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +27.9%

HOU -9.7%

MIA +5.5%

MIA +19.5%

MIA +6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIA	NBA	HOU	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	17.4	15.6	94.4	101.1	104.4
season	16.1	15.5		99.9	106.1
opponent	15.5	16.1		102.3	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.0	14.1	16.3	16.0	15.3
MIA	17.9	17.8	16.5	17.5	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	36	36	0.27	-0.77	1.03	0.00	9	-13	22	16.0	14.9	1.05	17.8	17.1	0.64
Dikembe Mutombo	25	22	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.03	4	-8	12	16.6	14.9	1.68	17.7	17.3	0.43
Jon Barry	37	38	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.10	-3	-1	-2	14.5	15.9	-1.38	16.7	17.9	-1.23
Luther Head	23	25	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.02	-7	3	-10	14.7	15.6	-0.82	16.6	17.7	-1.18
Rafer Alston	64	62	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-6	8	16.0	13.7	2.26	17.9	16.3	1.57
Stromile Swift	40	39	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	7	-18	13.7	16.7	-2.95	16.6	18.0	-1.38
Juwan Howard	53	51	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.34	-1	-3	2	16.4	13.8	2.59	17.9	16.7	1.16
Derek Anderson	60	57	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-2	0	15.0	16.0	-0.92	17.3	17.5	-0.20
Yao Ming	60	60	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.45	-1	-3	2	15.0	16.1	-1.07	17.8	16.5	1.34
David Wesley	47	45	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.40	-10	6	-16	15.3	15.4	-0.06	17.0	17.8	-0.79

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	61	62	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.49	8	-4	12	16.7	19.0	-2.28	15.6	14.9	0.71
Dwyane Wade	74	76	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.36	12	-8	20	17.0	19.8	-2.87	15.2	15.9	-0.67
Udonis Haslem	52	54	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.41	6	-2	8	17.9	16.7	1.15	16.1	14.2	1.85
Gary Payton	49	52	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.41	6	-2	8	17.0	17.9	-0.83	15.8	14.6	1.20
Jason Williams	67	67	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.46	0	4	-4	18.0	15.4	2.54	15.3	15.6	-0.32
James Posey	45	45	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.06	-2	6	-8	16.8	18.0	-1.20	14.8	15.9	-1.11
Wayne Simien	26	27	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	-0.11	-4	8	-12	19.0	16.7	2.28	14.9	15.6	-0.71
Antoine Walker	61	62	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	-0.05	-6	10	-16	17.6	16.9	0.68	14.9	16.4	-1.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.32,0.47,0.59,0.47,0.62,0.71,0.86,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 93, IND 100	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.42,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.53,0.47,0.66,0.67,0.78,0.94,0.92,1	92.9%
LAC 101, SAC 116	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.38,0.41,0.27,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.18,0.24,0.33,0.47,0.64,0.76,0.61,0.69,0.89,0.99,1,1	92.1%
NJN 94, PHI 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.41,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.78,0.87,1	91.9%