NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	105		Excitement	7.4 [362]		MVP	Jermaine O'Neal (IND): +32.7%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	1.2 [564]		LVP	Antoine Walker (MIA): -35.4%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jermaine O'Neal	0.33	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.33	0.07	0.25	-0.01	20	54%	0.36	1	-0.03	10	70%	0.03
Austin Croshere	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.10	-0.00	5	73%	0.19	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Metta World Peace	0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15	0.10	0.04	-0.01	13	61%	0.15	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.04
Jamaal Tinsley	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	11	59%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sarunas Jasikevicius	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	75%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Samaki Walker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.01	13	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
David Harrison	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.05	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Fred Jones	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.08	0.01	8	64%	0.15	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.18,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	-0.01	17	66%	0.28	5	-0.14	13	77%	0.04
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	12	56%	0.09	3	-0.07	8	75%	-0.00
Earl Barron	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.02	-0.07	0.00	7	53%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.07
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.06	0.00	5	60%	0.06	3	-0.11	10	40%	-0.10
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	8	19%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.35	-0.35	-0.16	-0.17	0.02	15	35%	-0.17	5	-0.19	4	25%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	2.0	39.0	20.7	33.3	3.3	47.4	174.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +30.4%

IND +25.7%

MIA -7.5%

IND +17.6%

MIA -16.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	15.7	14.1	15.6	109.4	105.2	104.4
season	16.0	15.5		102.3	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.5		102.3	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	16.2	15.0	15.1	16.9	15.7
MIA	14.5	14.4	13.1	14.4	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	79	82	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.31	16	-13	29	15.5	17.0	-1.53	14.0	14.5	-0.42
Austin Croshere	58	56	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.14	16	-13	29	15.4	16.2	-0.78	14.9	13.1	1.80
Jamaal Tinsley	69	69	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.37	7	-4	11	16.1	14.7	1.39	14.6	12.9	1.67
Jermaine O'Neal	73	75	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.47	-2	5	-7	16.7	12.7	4.06	14.6	12.5	2.03
Danny Granger	26	27	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.06	10	-7	17	13.0	16.7	-3.70	12.7	14.6	-1.90
Stephen Jackson	53	54	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.40	-11	14	-25	16.5	14.8	1.72	14.5	13.6	0.87
Anthony Johnson	0	2	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	4	-5	0.0	15.7	-15.74	6.5	14.3	-7.77
Fred Jones	63	61	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.16	-4	7	-11	15.7	15.9	-0.26	13.7	14.8	-1.10
Samaki Walker	9	8	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.03	1	2	-1	16.8	15.6	1.15	13.9	14.1	-0.26
Sarunas Jasikevicius	27	28	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.01	0	3	-3	14.7	16.1	-1.39	12.6	14.7	-2.17
David Harrison	23	23	-0.40	0.90	-1.29	0.10	-17	20	-37	15.5	15.8	-0.34	14.0	14.2	-0.21

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	58	59	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-4	5	14.9	13.0	1.86	15.9	15.4	0.50
Earl Barron	1	1	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-1	-1	0.0	14.3	-14.26	24.0	15.7	8.35
Jason Kapono	34	35	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.29	1	-4	5	14.2	14.0	0.19	16.3	15.4	0.95
Jason Williams	55	53	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	2	-7	14.1	14.2	-0.14	15.9	15.5	0.37
Antoine Walker	88	88	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.47	4	-7	11	14.4	11.7	2.70	15.6	16.9	-1.24
Alonzo Mourning	35	34	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	-1	-1	13.5	14.4	-0.89	15.0	16.1	-1.15
Dwyane Wade	89	86	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.47	2	-5	7	14.3	12.4	1.89	15.8	15.0	0.83
Gary Payton	60	61	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.38	-1	-2	1	13.3	15.4	-2.05	15.4	16.4	-1.04
Udonis Haslem	65	63	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.03	-13	10	-23	14.1	14.1	0.03	15.7	15.7	0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.23,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.25,0.19,0.26,0.2,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.26,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.47,0.25,0.15,0.06,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 98, DEN 93	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.25,0.29,0.06,0.26,0	93.6%
WAS 95, POR 91	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.24,0.34,0.23,0.07,0.07,0.08,0	92.6%
DAL 104, VAN 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.31,0.21,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.17,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.36,0.11,0.11,0.37,0	92.5%