NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	8.2 [242]		MVP	Christian Laettner (MIA): +13.4%
Orlando Magic	93		Comeback	4.5 [157]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -36.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Christian Laettner	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.13	0.00	0.13	0.00	7	78%	0.27	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.04	0.01	5	100%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.1,0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	9	86%	0.24	4	-0.19	4	100%	0.03
Steven Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	4	60%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Eddie Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	4	100%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.01	3	75%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.08
Damon Jones	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	6	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.01	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	7	47%	-0.05	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	8	44%	-0.04	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.04
Rasual Butler	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.09	-0.10	0.00	13	30%	-0.16	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Kasun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	3	62%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Barrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	0.00	7	67%	0.06	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Brandon Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	11	42%	-0.06	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Steve Francis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18	-0.18	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	19	51%	0.05	7	-0.24	3	33%	-0.06
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.1,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.11	-0.16	-0.01	16	49%	-0.02	4	-0.24	11	82%	0.06
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.26,-0.32,-0.37	-0.37	-0.08	-0.25	0.04	13	38%	-0.22	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	479.7	2.4	30.6	17.4	26.2	2.5	32.5	591.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +49.0%

MIA +11.7%

ORL -29.6%

MIA +19.8%

ORL -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	15.6	15.2	15.5	105.4	98.9	104.0
season	15.7	14.3		107.9	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		105.1	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.5	16.1	16.4	14.6	15.6
ORL	14.5	14.5	15.6	16.1	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keyon Dooling	56	58	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.38	3	2	1	16.0	15.1	0.83	16.2	13.5	2.66
Steven Smith	40	40	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.37	2	3	-1	14.6	16.4	-1.73	14.7	15.5	-0.82
Michael Doleac	53	55	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.42	0	5	-5	16.0	15.1	0.89	15.3	15.0	0.25
Christian Laettner	47	47	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.39	1	4	-3	15.3	15.9	-0.59	15.3	15.0	0.26
Dorell Wright	42	44	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.40	-1	6	-7	16.6	14.8	1.75	14.9	15.4	-0.45
Rasual Butler	50	51	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.08	10	-5	15	16.1	15.1	0.96	16.7	13.3	3.36
Udonis Haslem	46	47	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.04	4	1	3	15.9	15.3	0.59	15.0	15.3	-0.26
Alonzo Mourning	40	39	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.07	5	0	5	15.1	16.0	-0.89	15.0	15.3	-0.25
Damon Jones	37	36	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	3	-1	15.1	16.0	-0.83	13.5	16.2	-2.66
Eddie Jones	24	24	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	5	-5	15.5	15.7	-0.18	14.5	15.4	-0.90
Shandon Anderson	30	29	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	6	-7	15.0	16.0	-0.99	14.0	15.7	-1.64

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Hunter	22	22	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.04	8	-13	21	13.1	15.8	-2.71	17.8	15.0	2.86
Mark Jones	24	22	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.02	7	-12	19	13.9	15.6	-1.74	16.3	15.4	0.84
Andre Barrett	29	27	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.04	5	-10	15	15.1	15.2	-0.05	17.0	15.1	1.98
Mario Kasun	23	22	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.03	-7	2	-9	17.2	14.5	2.71	17.8	15.0	2.86
Tony Battie	71	70	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.38	1	-6	7	14.6	16.9	-2.31	14.8	18.3	-3.49
DeShawn Stevenson	83	82	-0.51	0.00	-0.51	-0.33	-6	1	-7	15.0	16.6	-1.66	15.5	16.6	-1.14
Dwight Howard	72	72	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.26	-12	7	-19	15.7	13.4	2.30	15.1	17.3	-2.19
Steve Francis	77	79	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.34	-10	5	-15	15.7	12.9	2.72	15.8	14.6	1.17
Jameer Nelson	69	69	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.33	-11	6	-17	15.3	14.8	0.56	14.8	17.9	-3.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.64,0.7,0.52,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.59,0.73,0.78,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.63,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.45,0.37,0.23,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 97, POR 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.71,0.52,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.82,0.71,0.73,0.45,0.52,0.22,0.09,0	91.5%
MIA 89, DET 78	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.54,0.38,0.23,0.1,0,0	91.4%
ORL 103, NJN 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.7,0.51,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.68,0.67,0.77,0.71,0.72,0.87,0.9,0.82,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.69,0.37,0.1,0.27,0	91.2%