NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	6.7 [510]		MVP	Travis Outlaw (POR): +9.5%
Portland Trail Blazers	97		Comeback	2.3 [370]		LVP	Ruben Patterson (POR): -21.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryon Russell	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	4	87%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	0.01	6	71%	0.10	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.07
Earl Boykins	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	12	55%	0.06	2	-0.03	7	100%	0.02
Nene	0.01	0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	6	100%	0.14	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Wesley Person	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	17	59%	0.05	4	-0.09	5	100%	0.04
Francisco Elson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Andre Miller	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	11	59%	0.02	5	-0.13	5	80%	0.02
Marcus Camby	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	8	33%	-0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.03	0.02	4	100%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.09	-0.01	0.06	19	64%	0.11	2	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	6	64%	0.05	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Richie Frahm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Viktor Khryapa	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	6	38%	-0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.03	-0.05	15	44%	0.01	4	-0.11	6	100%	0.03
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	23	42%	-0.08	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.14	-0.07	-0.00	10	31%	-0.13	2	-0.08	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.3	31.4	15.7	25.0	1.8	37.2	137.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +37.2%

POR -0.3%

DEN +4.3%

DEN +5.0%

DEN +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	14.1	16.7	15.5	109.6	104.3	104.0
season	14.8	15.8		103.8	101.2
opponent	15.6	15.6		105.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.8	14.5	16.7	13.9	14.1
POR	17.7	17.4	16.0	15.5	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	42	41	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.42	10	-4	14	13.5	14.7	-1.22	16.7	16.6	0.07
Carmelo Anthony	75	75	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.40	8	-2	10	13.5	16.6	-3.11	16.5	17.3	-0.83
DerMarr Johnson	61	60	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.38	5	1	4	13.7	14.9	-1.17	16.0	17.8	-1.74
Nene	64	64	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.33	6	0	6	13.6	15.2	-1.59	17.0	16.0	0.92
Earl Boykins	56	54	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.21	8	-2	10	14.7	13.4	1.31	15.8	17.9	-2.08
Andre Miller	57	59	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	6	-6	14.2	14.0	0.20	17.6	15.0	2.63
Francisco Elson	14	14	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	8	-10	14.5	14.1	0.41	17.6	16.5	1.15
Bryon Russell	19	19	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.02	-2	8	-10	18.2	13.1	5.02	15.9	16.9	-0.90
Marcus Camby	54	53	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.13	1	5	-4	14.0	14.3	-0.26	17.2	16.0	1.21
Wesley Person	28	26	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	-0.07	-4	10	-14	15.0	13.8	1.21	16.3	16.8	-0.44

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ruben Patterson	45	45	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-7	8	17.3	16.1	1.21	15.2	13.1	2.10
Damon Stoudamire	71	71	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.31	4	-10	14	16.4	17.6	-1.27	14.3	13.6	0.72
Travis Outlaw	26	28	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-1	-4	16.2	16.8	-0.61	13.9	14.3	-0.36
Viktor Khryapa	57	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.37	2	-8	10	15.8	18.0	-2.22	13.1	15.8	-2.70
Richie Frahm	20	20	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	-13	7	-20	18.1	16.3	1.89	13.8	14.2	-0.38
Joel Przybilla	73	74	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.21	-8	2	-10	17.4	14.1	3.27	14.4	13.2	1.21
Sebastian Telfair	80	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.31	-5	-1	-4	16.3	18.8	-2.44	14.1	14.7	-0.69
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	93	93	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.30	-6	0	-6	16.7	0.0	16.67	14.2	14.0	0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.53,0.33,0.19,0.04,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 99, POR 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.34,0.4,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.61,0.73,0.59,0.4,0.33,0.11,0.04,0,0,0	91.5%
ORL 97, NYK 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.33,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.62,0.58,0.41,0.47,0.38,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.08,0	91.5%
LAL 90, NOH 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.3,0.3,0.47,0.38,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.33,0.26,0.07,0.1,0,0	91.4%