NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	109		Excitement	4.7 [918]		MVP	Keith Van Horn (DAL): +16.1%
Golden State Warriors	97		Comeback	1.9 [330]		LVP	Derek Fisher (GSW): -11.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Van Horn	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.18	0.02	0.04	11	86%	0.16	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Dirk Nowitzki	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.02	14	76%	0.16	6	-0.08	10	90%	0.04
Jason Terry	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	10	70%	0.08	1	-0.02	13	100%	0.06
Shawn Bradley	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pavel Podkolzin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	8	44%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	8	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Michael Finley	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.11	-0.00	-0.04	11	25%	-0.07	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Howard	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	0.01	10	43%	-0.02	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.05	13	67%	0.02	2	-0.03	7	86%	-0.00
Zarko Cabarkapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	9	55%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	8	12%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.02	6	62%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Baron Davis	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	20	46%	-0.05	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	17	31%	-0.09	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	8	48%	-0.07	3	-0.04	13	77%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	3.4	33.4	16.8	32.9	2.8	36.2	151.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +40.0%

DAL +7.2%

DAL +4.2%

DAL +3.4%

GSW -4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	GSW	NBA	DAL	GSW	NBA
this game	14.9	14.2	15.5	109.0	99.0	104.0
season	14.9	15.0		108.2	102.3
opponent	15.2	15.5		104.7	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.6	15.2	14.6	15.3	14.9
GSW	12.5	15.5	14.2	14.7	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	77	77	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.20	7	5	2	15.4	13.3	2.07	13.7	16.1	-2.43
Keith Van Horn	57	57	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.10	17	-5	22	14.6	15.3	-0.75	15.2	12.8	2.37
Shawn Bradley	41	40	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.08	9	3	6	15.5	14.5	1.00	14.1	14.2	-0.06
Devin Harris	38	36	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.04	10	2	8	14.1	15.4	-1.37	13.7	14.4	-0.69
Jason Terry	79	77	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.22	3	9	-6	15.1	14.0	1.08	14.1	14.6	-0.49
Marquis Daniels	44	43	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.08	8	4	4	15.3	14.6	0.79	15.6	13.1	2.45
Dirk Nowitzki	81	79	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	9	-6	15.6	12.1	3.45	14.1	14.6	-0.56
Josh Howard	55	55	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.11	-1	13	-14	14.6	15.3	-0.75	13.8	14.7	-0.83
Alan Henderson	23	22	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	14	-16	14.0	15.2	-1.23	13.7	14.3	-0.65
Darrell Armstrong	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	8	-4	3.3	15.3	-11.92	11.5	14.2	-2.74
Pavel Podkolzin	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	10	-8	2.0	15.2	-13.16	11.5	14.2	-2.74

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andris Biedrins	26	27	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.16	-10	-2	-8	16.2	13.4	2.79	13.7	15.3	-1.64
Mike Dunleavy	24	25	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.15	-1	-11	10	11.7	15.0	-3.22	16.1	14.5	1.63
Adonal Foyle	62	62	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.22	0	-12	12	13.5	15.4	-1.91	15.3	14.3	0.94
Mickael Pietrus	58	58	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	-6	0	14.6	13.6	0.94	14.5	15.5	-0.95
Baron Davis	86	86	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.27	1	-13	14	13.5	18.9	-5.39	15.3	12.4	2.96
Zarko Cabarkapa	52	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-7	2	14.6	13.7	0.96	15.1	14.7	0.37
Rodney White	22	25	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.05	-11	-1	-10	16.5	13.5	2.93	14.0	15.2	-1.15
Derek Fisher	74	76	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.10	-11	-1	-10	13.9	15.2	-1.30	14.9	14.9	0.03
Jason Richardson	86	89	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.04	-17	5	-22	14.6	11.4	3.15	14.7	16.8	-2.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 100, VAN 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.25,0.21,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
OKC 109, NOP 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.33,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
NOH 116, MEM 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.49,0.48,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%