NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	102		Excitement	4.5 [940]		MVP	Lionel Chalmers (LAC): +9.9%
Los Angeles Clippers	110		Comeback	1.4 [996]		LVP	Steve Francis (ORL): -10.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07	0.11	-0.03	0.01	15	65%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Mario Kasun	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.10	-0.01	0.06	17	78%	0.14	5	-0.11	3	33%	-0.03
Pat Garrity	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.03	0.02	17	51%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Kelvin Cato	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	8	56%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	3	12%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Francis	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1	-0.12	-0.02	-0.03	17	35%	-0.10	0	0.00	9	78%	0.01

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lionel Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.05	-0.01	5	64%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.02	10	73%	0.12	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Zeljko Rebraca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	7	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Quinton Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	16	66%	0.08	4	-0.09	15	73%	0.01
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	10	59%	0.01	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	13	41%	-0.08	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Rick Brunson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.00	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	1.0	28.5	17.0	29.4	2.6	38.0	141.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +19.8%

LAC +10.0%

LAC +32.4%

ORL -16.5%

LAC +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	LAC	NBA	ORL	LAC	NBA
this game	14.5	16.5	15.5	109.7	118.3	104.0
season	14.3	16.0		102.9	103.0
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.8	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.4	14.0	16.4	11.4	14.5
LAC	15.6	19.7	14.2	16.7	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Garrity	9	9	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.00	-2	-6	4	7.9	15.2	-7.30	19.1	16.2	2.91
Mario Kasun	8	10	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.07	-9	1	-10	20.1	14.0	6.17	13.1	16.9	-3.79
Kelvin Cato	69	67	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.49	10	-18	28	14.4	14.7	-0.36	17.6	13.7	3.87
Hedo Turkoglu	30	31	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.19	-15	7	-22	15.2	14.1	1.06	16.0	16.7	-0.73
Dwight Howard	74	74	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.35	3	-11	14	14.7	13.7	1.00	17.0	14.5	2.46
Tony Battie	27	27	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.18	-16	8	-24	14.3	14.6	-0.26	13.1	17.9	-4.80
Grant Hill	81	80	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.32	-1	-7	6	14.4	15.1	-0.69	17.4	10.6	6.82
Jameer Nelson	85	85	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.37	-2	-6	4	14.3	16.2	-1.93	16.3	18.7	-2.48
Steve Francis	82	82	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.25	-8	0	-8	14.6	13.5	1.06	15.9	21.1	-5.23

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elton Brand	74	73	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.17	14	-6	20	15.8	19.1	-3.23	15.0	12.6	2.34
Corey Maggette	79	77	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.01	19	-11	30	15.8	20.1	-4.22	14.7	13.2	1.49
Rick Brunson	67	65	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-5	18	15.4	19.4	-4.03	14.6	14.2	0.44
Chris Kaman	56	57	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.31	3	5	-2	16.0	17.2	-1.17	14.7	14.2	0.47
Bobby Simmons	68	68	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.42	-3	11	-14	16.9	15.3	1.59	14.7	13.8	0.88
Zeljko Rebraca	31	29	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.02	4	4	0	16.8	16.3	0.48	15.0	14.3	0.70
Quinton Ross	41	44	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	8	-8	17.2	15.9	1.36	13.0	15.8	-2.77
Mikki Moore	13	13	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	8	-8	17.0	16.4	0.60	11.5	15.0	-3.42
Lionel Chalmers	26	28	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.12	-5	13	-18	19.4	15.4	4.03	14.2	14.6	-0.44
Chris Wilcox	10	11	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	13	-18	21.3	15.9	5.40	15.0	14.4	0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.95,0.9,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 97, POR 112	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.76,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
UTA 91, SAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.3%
ATL 89, CLE 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.73,0.77,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%