NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	101		Excitement	3.9 [1056]		MVP	DerMarr Johnson (DEN): +15.6%
Denver Nuggets	120		Comeback	1.0 [1265]		LVP	Matt Carroll (CHA): -7.7%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Bogans	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.00	11	73%	0.10	2	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	15	53%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Primoz Brezec	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	9	64%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	15	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	8	37%	-0.05
Bernard Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	9	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Theron Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	3	56%	0.01	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Cory Alexander	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	0.00	-0.07	2	0%	-0.02	3	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Brevin Knight	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	8	37%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	0.00	0.05	6	43%	-0.07	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.15	0.02	0.01	5	117%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.01	-0.02	16	69%	0.16	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.00	-0.04	9	60%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	8	72%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.02	8	72%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	62%	0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.08	6	39%	0.01	1	-0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Mark Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.09	0.00	-0.08	5	30%	0.01	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	0.02	12	54%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	8	35%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.6	24.1	15.4	26.2	1.8	24.4	120.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +40.1%

DEN +2.3%

DEN +8.8%

CHA -1.9%

DEN +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	DEN	NBA	CHA	DEN	NBA
this game	15.3	14.4	15.5	104.1	123.7	104.0
season	15.5	14.8		99.0	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.1		102.3	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	15.1	16.5	14.4	15.3	15.3
DEN	12.6	13.5	16.3	15.4	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Alexander	23	23	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.12	-5	-14	9	16.8	14.8	2.00	14.0	14.5	-0.46
Malik Allen	12	10	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-18	17	17.2	15.0	2.23	13.2	14.5	-1.33
Theron Smith	26	24	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-16	13	14.1	15.7	-1.67	15.6	14.0	1.58
Bernard Robinson	39	38	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.02	-6	-13	7	15.6	15.1	0.44	15.0	14.0	1.00
Brevin Knight	48	49	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-16	13	15.0	15.6	-0.55	14.0	14.7	-0.71
Matt Carroll	25	25	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.06	-10	-9	-1	16.8	14.8	2.02	14.9	14.2	0.71
Keith Bogans	53	55	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.06	-6	-13	7	14.6	16.2	-1.57	14.3	14.6	-0.32
Emeka Okafor	66	66	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.23	-16	-3	-13	16.1	13.6	2.43	13.5	16.2	-2.70
Melvin Ely	38	37	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.03	-10	-9	-1	14.9	15.5	-0.58	15.1	14.0	1.07
Jason Hart	32	31	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.02	-10	-9	-1	15.3	15.3	0.02	15.2	14.0	1.23
Jason Kapono	61	62	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.04	-11	-8	-3	14.6	16.6	-2.00	14.3	14.6	-0.37
Primoz Brezec	62	65	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.02	-14	-5	-9	15.0	15.8	-0.74	14.3	14.6	-0.25

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	53	51	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.00	12	7	5	14.0	14.9	-0.91	15.1	15.5	-0.47
Andre Miller	64	65	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.03	10	9	1	14.7	13.7	1.01	14.6	16.8	-2.26
Greg Buckner	51	50	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.03	12	7	5	14.6	14.1	0.50	15.3	15.3	0.04
Francisco Elson	64	64	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.21	17	2	15	14.0	15.2	-1.24	14.8	16.3	-1.52
Wesley Person	46	46	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.15	14	5	9	13.9	14.8	-0.91	16.2	14.5	1.79
Carmelo Anthony	46	45	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.03	7	12	-5	14.3	14.5	-0.17	14.9	15.6	-0.68
Eduardo Najera	43	44	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.16	13	6	7	14.4	14.4	0.09	16.2	14.6	1.57
Earl Boykins	39	40	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.02	7	12	-5	14.7	14.2	0.46	16.2	14.7	1.53
DerMarr Johnson	45	45	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.03	7	12	-5	14.0	14.7	-0.77	15.0	15.6	-0.64
Bryon Russell	24	25	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.16	-1	20	-21	15.2	14.1	1.03	15.7	15.2	0.57
Mark Pope	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	22	-25	17.2	14.1	3.13	14.9	15.3	-0.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.78,0.72,0.71,0.67,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.66,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.88,0.84,0.9,0.83,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.98,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 108, CHA 119	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.77,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.3%
UTA 75, DEN 102	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.78,0.84,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
SAC 102, PHX 127	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.79,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%