NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	105		Excitement	5.3 [796]		MVP	Josh Howard (DAL): +15.7%
Dallas Mavericks	113		Comeback	1.4 [987]		LVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): -14.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	0.02	0.05	10	74%	0.07	0	0.00	11	82%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	125%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	10	62%	0.09	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Pape Sow	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	10	52%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Jalen Rose	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	14	53%	0.04	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Milt Palacio	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.03	0.01	15	54%	0.02	6	-0.15	5	60%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.04	0.01	11	50%	-0.02	5	-0.13	4	75%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.05	-0.06	18	59%	0.19	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Keith Van Horn	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.01	-0.02	13	70%	0.15	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.08	0.03	15	64%	0.15	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.02
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	5	75%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	1	50%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	30	48%	0.06	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.01
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	7	29%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.3	27.6	17.4	25.2	2.8	35.3	133.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +30.8%

TOR -7.0%

DAL +3.8%

DAL +20.1%

DAL +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DAL	NBA	TOR	DAL	NBA
this game	15.7	14.4	15.5	110.5	117.7	104.0
season	15.1	14.9		104.8	108.2
opponent	15.5	15.4		103.4	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.6	16.1	18.1	12.5	15.7
DAL	12.2	14.0	14.6	17.0	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pape Sow	15	15	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.21	7	-15	22	6.8	17.4	-10.61	16.3	14.1	2.18
Donyell Marshall	33	36	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.15	2	-10	12	16.7	15.2	1.52	14.5	14.4	0.07
Rafael Araujo	28	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.03	-8	0	-8	17.2	15.1	2.04	12.6	15.2	-2.57
Morris Peterson	65	66	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.19	-2	-6	4	14.8	17.7	-2.92	14.7	13.9	0.72
Rafer Alston	66	69	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.12	-6	-2	-4	16.7	13.6	3.10	14.1	15.2	-1.11
Matt Bonner	64	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.25	-2	-6	4	15.2	16.8	-1.59	15.4	12.4	2.98
Milt Palacio	50	49	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.30	-1	-7	6	14.3	17.4	-3.08	15.2	13.7	1.50
Jalen Rose	62	62	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.11	-17	9	-26	18.0	11.4	6.65	13.7	15.7	-1.98
Chris Bosh	92	91	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.25	-13	5	-18	16.0	8.7	7.30	14.1	20.0	-5.88

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Howard	90	90	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.24	13	-5	18	14.3	16.3	-2.03	16.0	10.4	5.63
Marquis Daniels	92	92	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.26	6	2	4	14.3	18.0	-3.73	15.8	12.7	3.17
Jason Terry	81	80	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.27	5	3	2	14.6	13.3	1.30	15.5	17.1	-1.58
Keith Van Horn	61	57	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.02	10	-2	12	13.8	15.6	-1.80	16.0	15.4	0.61
Alan Henderson	63	61	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.32	-2	10	-12	15.6	12.2	3.42	14.7	17.5	-2.79
Shawn Bradley	33	34	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.05	10	-2	12	12.2	15.6	-3.42	17.5	14.7	2.79
Devin Harris	28	27	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	5	-2	14.5	14.4	0.10	15.5	15.8	-0.36
Darrell Armstrong	32	34	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.26	-5	13	-18	15.9	13.7	2.22	15.1	16.1	-1.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.79,0.78,0.72,0.75,0.66,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.68,0.72,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.66,0.81,0.75,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.96,0.98,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 82, CHA 100	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.66,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.55,0.69,0.81,0.87,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
GSW 92, UTA 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.51,0.58,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.96,1	94.5%
MIA 92, CLE 102	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.67,0.72,0.59,0.72,0.76,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%