NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	94		Excitement	7.6 [343]		MVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): +8.1%
Golden State Warriors	88		Comeback	2.4 [253]		LVP	Troy Murphy (GSW): -18.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Arroyo	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.03	3	71%	0.04	1	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.00	14	66%	0.08	3	-0.07	7	71%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	78%	0.07	2	-0.06	8	50%	-0.04
Chauncey Billups	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	14	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	8	75%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.02	17	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	9	11%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15	-0.18	-0.04	-0.07	16	34%	-0.06	4	-0.09	6	67%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	17	66%	0.22	3	-0.14	4	75%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.04	-0.01	17	56%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.02	-0.00	8	75%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zarko Cabarkapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	14	29%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	11	38%	-0.07	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.02
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.07	-0.11	-0.00	11	32%	-0.14	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.6	26.5	16.3	25.5	2.3	38.5	133.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -5.1%

DET +8.7%

DET +35.0%

DET +8.3%

DET +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	GSW	NBA	DET	GSW	NBA
this game	16.1	16.1	15.5	103.3	100.0	104.0
season	16.7	15.0		103.5	102.3
opponent	15.2	15.9		104.7	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.8	16.2	15.8	17.9	16.1
GSW	13.9	15.8	16.9	18.1	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasheed Wallace	71	69	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.24	16	-10	26	14.7	21.1	-6.44	16.6	14.3	2.35
Tayshaun Prince	81	79	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.27	10	-4	14	16.0	17.1	-1.15	16.5	12.7	3.83
Chauncey Billups	74	71	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.38	6	0	6	15.3	19.6	-4.39	16.0	16.6	-0.68
Richard Hamilton	73	71	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.34	2	4	-2	15.5	18.4	-2.95	15.4	19.1	-3.66
Ben Wallace	79	75	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.35	-2	8	-10	15.4	20.5	-5.09	15.7	18.4	-2.68
Lindsey Hunter	20	19	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.01	3	3	0	18.6	15.4	3.30	15.7	16.2	-0.53
Antonio McDyess	32	30	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.07	-2	8	-10	20.9	13.5	7.40	17.0	15.6	1.36
Carlos Arroyo	25	26	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.03	-3	9	-12	18.6	15.1	3.42	16.3	16.0	0.24

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	65	70	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.19	10	-16	26	14.7	20.0	-5.22	16.6	14.3	2.33
Rodney White	2	3	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-6	6	9.0	16.3	-7.27	7.3	16.4	-9.04
Zarko Cabarkapa	16	14	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.05	-2	-4	2	18.1	15.7	2.40	21.7	15.1	6.66
Andris Biedrins	4	3	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-5	4	18.2	16.0	2.25	20.7	15.9	4.75
Baron Davis	53	53	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.34	5	-11	16	16.5	15.5	0.98	16.5	15.5	0.99
Mickael Pietrus	30	30	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.08	-4	-2	-2	16.1	16.1	-0.05	16.1	16.1	0.03
Jason Richardson	84	88	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.39	0	-6	6	15.8	23.2	-7.49	16.1	14.7	1.46
Adonal Foyle	61	65	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	5	-16	16.7	14.7	1.96	16.1	16.0	0.16
Troy Murphy	61	64	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.32	-9	3	-12	16.3	15.6	0.74	15.1	18.4	-3.31
Derek Fisher	64	65	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.22	-18	12	-30	16.4	15.2	1.23	15.0	18.8	-3.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.19,0.3,0.23,0.16,0.08,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.25,0.29,0.16,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 95, NOP 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.23,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.25,0.46,0.33,0.15,0	92.8%
SAC 107, ORL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.13,0.06,0.13,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.11,0.02,0,0	92.4%
HOU 113, MEM 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.41,0.16,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.24,0.37,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.15,0,0	92.4%