NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	110		Excitement	10.1 [66]		MVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): +16.1%
Washington Wizards	108		Comeback	15.3 [52]		LVP	Kwame Brown (WAS): -34.2%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0.16	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.1,0.26,0.26,0.16	0.11	0.05	-0.00	23	70%	0.31	5	-0.15	8	87%	0.01
Maurice Evans	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	9	60%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Eddie House	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07
Darius Songaila	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	2	80%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Corliss Williamson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	56%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Cuttino Mobley	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.24,-0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	17	45%	0.02	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Brad Miller	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13	-0.03	-0.09	0.01	11	50%	-0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Kenny Thomas	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.01	-0.00	6	37%	0.01	4	-0.15	4	50%	-0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.24,0.21,0.32,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.03	-0.01	32	61%	0.27	3	-0.11	7	57%	-0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.02	0.00	9	77%	0.13	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.00	8	68%	0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Laron Profit	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	5	40%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	55%	-0.01	1	-0.04	5	40%	-0.04
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18	-0.18	-0.08	-0.10	0.00	1	33%	-0.10	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.08
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33	-0.33	-0.26	-0.08	-0.01	15	22%	-0.12	6	-0.21	2	0%	-0.03
Kwame Brown	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.18,-0.18,-0.34	-0.34	-0.08	-0.26	-0.00	7	45%	-0.18	2	-0.16	8	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	27.5	15.6	25.1	0.2	39.2	134.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +20.7%

SAC +16.4%

WAS -6.9%

SAC +17.1%

SAC +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	WAS	NBA	SAC	WAS	NBA
this game	13.8	15.7	15.5	113.4	110.2	104.0
season	14.7	14.7		108.1	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.6		105.5	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	12.1	15.6	14.7	12.9	13.8
WAS	17.9	13.8	15.3	15.9	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maurice Evans	32	31	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.57	7	-5	12	14.5	13.5	1.04	14.8	16.2	-1.39
Cuttino Mobley	88	89	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.47	7	-5	12	13.6	15.9	-2.30	15.9	14.0	1.90
Kenny Thomas	71	71	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.42	5	-3	8	13.6	14.2	-0.58	15.5	16.3	-0.79
Mike Bibby	87	88	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.46	2	0	2	13.6	15.5	-1.89	15.3	19.1	-3.76
Brad Miller	84	85	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.47	1	1	0	13.2	17.9	-4.76	15.8	15.5	0.21
Brian Skinner	22	20	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.07	3	-1	4	16.2	13.1	3.13	16.3	15.6	0.72
Corliss Williamson	47	50	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.10	0	2	-2	13.6	14.0	-0.36	17.1	14.3	2.73
Eddie House	19	19	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.05	-5	7	-12	15.7	13.3	2.34	16.7	15.5	1.19
Darius Songaila	35	37	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	0.05	-10	12	-22	13.7	13.8	-0.10	14.8	16.3	-1.55

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Etan Thomas	34	35	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.05	4	-6	10	16.1	15.5	0.56	14.9	13.2	1.69
Michael Ruffin	48	46	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.05	7	-9	16	14.9	16.5	-1.66	15.1	12.7	2.40
Jarvis Hayes	20	19	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-2	2	17.8	15.2	2.61	14.2	13.7	0.51
Laron Profit	14	15	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.07	-8	6	-14	17.5	15.4	2.07	10.3	14.4	-4.11
Brendan Haywood	63	62	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.17	-4	2	-6	15.8	15.7	0.10	13.2	14.9	-1.69
Steve Blake	69	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.47	3	-5	8	14.8	17.9	-3.04	14.3	12.5	1.83
Gilbert Arenas	95	93	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.46	-1	-1	0	15.8	14.3	1.44	13.9	11.5	2.40
Kwame Brown	65	64	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.45	-10	8	-18	16.2	14.9	1.28	13.2	15.0	-1.86
Antawn Jamison	82	82	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.73	-1	-1	0	15.6	16.4	-0.78	13.6	15.1	-1.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.69,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.81,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.43,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 104, GSW 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.57,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.72,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.23,0.58,0	92.3%
NOH 85, PHX 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.72,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.72,0	91.6%
BOS 90, POR 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.7,0.81,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.67,0.73,0	91.6%