NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	84		Excitement	8.1 [262]		MVP	Earl Watson (MEM): +9.1%
San Antonio Spurs	82		Comeback	1.9 [449]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -32.1%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Watson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.09	-0.02	0.10	-0.01	10	52%	0.13	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Lorenzen Wright	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07	-0.02	0.10	0.01	18	50%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Mike Miller	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	7	67%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.05
Ryan Humphrey	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	10	35%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jake Tsakalidis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	2	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Bonzi Wells	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.00	-0.06	-0.00	9	45%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	7	31%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Cardinal	-0.24	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.24	-0.15	-0.08	0.01	14	31%	-0.16	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	57%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Tony Massenburg	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.04	-0.01	9	67%	0.23	7	-0.26	6	100%	0.08
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.08	0.00	6	67%	0.04	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.03	0.01	9	35%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	-0.00	5	0%	-0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23	-0.23	-0.06	-0.17	0.01	13	53%	-0.08	4	-0.15	4	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.11	-0.21	0.01	16	55%	-0.14	5	-0.18	17	65%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.7	29.1	16.5	25.4	1.7	46.3	146.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +1.7%

MEM +6.7%

SAS -1.5%

MEM +47.4%

SAS -4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SAS	NBA	MEM	SAS	NBA
this game	16.4	14.3	15.5	89.4	87.2	104.0
season	16.4	16.3		103.7	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.5		98.4	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.9	16.2	18.3	15.1	16.4
SAS	14.8	13.8	13.6	14.9	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Watson	53	52	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.38	8	-6	14	14.4	18.8	-4.40	13.8	14.9	-1.12
Lorenzen Wright	82	79	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.44	4	-2	6	16.6	14.3	2.31	14.1	15.2	-1.09
Mike Miller	60	59	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.45	3	-1	4	17.5	14.4	3.13	15.1	12.9	2.14
Shane Battier	52	51	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.49	0	2	-2	18.0	14.4	3.60	14.1	14.5	-0.46
Brian Cardinal	73	73	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.55	-7	9	-16	17.2	13.4	3.82	14.0	15.1	-1.10
Ryan Humphrey	20	22	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.09	6	-4	10	12.2	17.5	-5.21	14.0	14.4	-0.43
Jake Tsakalidis	6	7	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	1	0	15.3	16.4	-1.09	18.4	14.0	4.47
Bonzi Wells	40	40	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.03	-1	3	-4	15.0	17.3	-2.31	13.9	14.6	-0.67
Jason Williams	41	42	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.06	-6	8	-14	18.8	14.4	4.40	14.9	13.8	1.12

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	13	13	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.00	4	-6	10	13.1	14.5	-1.40	14.8	16.6	-1.84
Brent Barry	47	48	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.01	-2	0	-2	15.7	12.9	2.79	14.1	18.7	-4.63
Robert Horry	38	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.18	-10	8	-18	13.6	14.7	-1.10	14.8	17.4	-2.67
Rasho Nesterovic	44	46	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.50	12	-14	26	14.2	14.4	-0.20	17.4	15.4	1.99
Tony Massenburg	9	8	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.05	-7	5	-12	13.4	14.4	-0.93	12.0	16.8	-4.76
Tim Duncan	81	81	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.41	8	-10	18	14.3	14.5	-0.20	16.9	12.9	3.98
Devin Brown	38	37	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	0	-2	13.8	14.6	-0.84	15.4	17.0	-1.56
Bruce Bowen	71	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.42	-2	0	-2	14.1	14.8	-0.66	17.7	12.5	5.12
Tony Parker	75	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.49	0	-2	2	14.5	13.3	1.22	16.9	14.2	2.73
Manu Ginobili	54	55	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.44	-11	9	-20	14.3	14.2	0.06	17.0	15.5	1.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.32,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.59,0.65,0.47,0.19,0.11,0.11,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 97, CHA 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.46,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.02,0	92.6%
DET 87, MEM 79	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.26,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.31,0.11,0.15,0.05,0	91.6%
DET 109, MIL 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.25,0.2,0.33,0.23,0.22,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.28,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.7,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.19,0.16,0.22,0,0	91.1%