NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	117		Excitement	6.8 [492]		MVP	Derek Fisher (GSW): +15.7%
Seattle SuperSonics	110		Comeback	3.7 [156]		LVP	Ray Allen (SEA): -8.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16	0.03	0.13	0.00	18	57%	0.23	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
Jason Richardson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.14	0.09	0.05	-0.00	23	59%	0.17	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Dale Davis	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.1	0.04	0.06	-0.01	10	73%	0.18	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Mike Dunleavy	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.00	8	65%	0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Calbert Cheaney	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	11	59%	0.10	2	-0.07	7	71%	-0.02
Eduardo Najera	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zarko Cabarkapa	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	6	46%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Mickael Pietrus	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.00	9	70%	0.13	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.05
Jerome James	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.02	7	71%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0	0.00	0.07	-0.03	0.04	9	68%	0.00	0	0.00	10	90%	0.04
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.01	13	53%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	0.01
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	1	67%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	14	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	-0.09	-0.00	18	60%	0.01	4	-0.10	7	71%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	3.0	30.5	15.8	31.2	2.7	39.1	150.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +78.1%

SEA -23.3%

GSW +2.5%

SEA -6.5%

SEA -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SEA	NBA	GSW	SEA	NBA
this game	15.5	15.1	15.5	124.5	117.0	104.0
season	15.0	16.5		102.3	109.5
opponent	15.6	15.2		107.9	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.6	14.9	15.3	16.2	15.5
SEA	15.0	16.4	15.4	13.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	82	81	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.31	13	-6	19	15.0	18.9	-3.90	14.5	18.9	-4.40
Speedy Claxton	74	73	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.26	12	-5	17	14.7	18.6	-3.99	14.9	15.8	-0.82
Mike Dunleavy	56	58	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.15	15	-8	23	15.8	15.1	0.72	15.6	14.4	1.20
Derek Fisher	87	86	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.35	3	4	-1	15.8	12.1	3.64	15.3	13.5	1.78
Adonal Foyle	29	29	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.14	6	1	5	15.0	15.8	-0.79	18.0	13.8	4.15
Dale Davis	62	60	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.22	2	5	-3	15.7	15.2	0.44	14.3	16.5	-2.15
Zarko Cabarkapa	13	14	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	8	-9	15.8	15.5	0.39	16.9	14.8	2.12
Mickael Pietrus	27	29	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	8	-9	17.0	14.9	2.04	15.1	15.1	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	16	17	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.00	-6	13	-19	15.7	15.5	0.29	15.6	15.0	0.56
Eduardo Najera	24	23	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.05	-8	15	-23	16.5	15.2	1.27	13.1	15.8	-2.70

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Radmanovic	47	48	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.04	8	-15	23	15.0	15.3	-0.26	16.6	14.3	2.28
Reggie Evans	25	25	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.04	0	-7	7	16.4	14.7	1.73	16.0	15.3	0.67
Nick Collison	59	59	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-7	7	14.6	16.1	-1.48	15.7	15.2	0.54
Ronald Murray	36	35	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.26	0	-7	7	13.3	16.3	-3.00	16.6	14.9	1.69
Ray Allen	82	83	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.31	0	-7	7	15.0	16.0	-1.00	15.5	15.9	-0.45
Antonio Daniels	65	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-7	7	14.3	16.9	-2.56	16.2	13.9	2.28
Jerome James	29	28	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.00	-15	8	-23	17.0	14.3	2.66	14.1	16.1	-1.95
Luke Ridnour	46	46	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.00	-16	9	-25	17.0	13.3	3.67	13.6	17.4	-3.77
Rashard Lewis	81	81	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.27	-12	5	-17	15.1	15.5	-0.39	15.1	17.8	-2.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.56,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.71,0.54,0.45,0.48,0.39,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.21,0.2,0.32,0.31,0.16,0.1,0.2,0.22,0.11,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 91, CHA 87	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.56,0.44,0.56,0.63,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.49,0.45,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.04,0.05,0.15,0	92.5%
PHI 83, NJN 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.3,0.16,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.34,0.05,0	92.5%
DEN 103, SEA 93	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.36,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.26,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.28,0.05,0,0	92.3%