NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	6.5 [513]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): +24.1%
Seattle SuperSonics	93		Comeback	2.3 [219]		LVP	Gary Payton (SEA): -22.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,0.04,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.24	0.11	0.13	-0.00	29	58%	0.29	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.03
James Posey	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	-0.00	-0.03	8	60%	0.08	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Scott Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	14	52%	0.02	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
George McCloud	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	16	45%	0.00	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
Avery Johnson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.02	0.01	5	36%	-0.06	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.01	-0.01	12	81%	0.17	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	11	70%	0.09	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.08	-0.01	0.04	18	64%	0.09	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Art Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	7	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shammond Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	3	0%	-0.08	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	14	44%	-0.10	4	-0.13	8	100%	0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	52.1	1.8	28.1	15.6	26.2	1.8	31.6	157.3
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +32.5%

SEA -4.0%

DEN +16.8%

DEN +2.1%

DEN +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SEA	NBA	DEN	SEA	NBA
this game	17.8	14.6	15.6	115.7	104.5	102.3
season	16.1	16.0		99.7	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.2		103.9	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.3	16.7	18.9	18.1	17.8
SEA	15.5	16.0	13.9	13.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	67	68	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.18	18	-8	26	17.6	18.3	-0.75	14.5	14.9	-0.33
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	75	75	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.16	14	-4	18	17.7	18.2	-0.55	14.4	15.6	-1.14
Nick Van Exel	72	72	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.17	13	-3	16	18.0	16.5	1.51	14.2	16.2	-2.01
Ryan Bowen	48	46	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.03	14	-4	18	16.9	18.7	-1.77	16.0	13.1	2.84
Scott Williams	23	22	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	9	-8	19.1	17.3	1.80	14.3	14.7	-0.38
Raef LaFrentz	53	53	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	7	-4	17.0	18.8	-1.81	15.4	13.4	2.00
George McCloud	61	61	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.20	-5	15	-20	18.5	16.1	2.45	13.9	16.1	-2.19
Avery Johnson	46	48	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.17	-8	18	-26	17.7	17.8	-0.07	14.4	14.9	-0.50

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Radmanovic	11	11	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.02	1	-11	12	16.2	14.4	1.80	13.0	18.4	-5.42
Antonio Harvey	15	16	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-8	6	15.9	14.3	1.60	16.2	18.1	-1.91
Earl Watson	29	31	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.14	3	-13	16	13.7	15.0	-1.31	19.4	16.9	2.56
Jerome James	12	12	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-8	6	12.0	15.0	-3.01	20.8	17.3	3.56
Shammond Williams	16	15	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-9	8	12.6	15.0	-2.42	18.6	17.6	1.02
Art Long	45	44	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.15	-5	-5	0	15.8	13.4	2.46	18.0	17.5	0.49
Rashard Lewis	76	75	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.15	-8	-2	-6	14.9	13.2	1.70	17.4	19.7	-2.33
Gary Payton	83	83	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.20	-9	-1	-8	14.5	16.2	-1.67	17.6	19.8	-2.23
Desmond Mason	83	84	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.22	-9	-1	-8	14.5	16.2	-1.67	17.7	18.2	-0.47
Brent Barry	75	74	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.11	-18	8	-26	14.6	14.9	-0.30	17.9	17.3	0.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.36,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.26,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.28,0.05,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 117, SEA 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.56,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.71,0.54,0.45,0.48,0.39,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.21,0.2,0.32,0.31,0.16,0.1,0.2,0.22,0.11,0.02,0	92.3%
POR 93, ATL 85	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.42,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.2,0.14,0.03,0.01,0,0	92.2%
LAC 109, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.37,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.19,0.21,0.12,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	92.1%