NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	83		Excitement	2.3 [1276]		MVP	Mike James (MIL): +17.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	113		Comeback	1.0 [1302]		LVP	Antoine Walker (ATL): -10.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Royal Ivey	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	5	40%	0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	12	74%	0.04	4	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Donta Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.03	4	71%	0.01	0	0.00	9	89%	0.00
Jason Collier	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	4	75%	0.02	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Obinna Ekezie	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	0.00	0.05	4	71%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	8	37%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.14	-0.00	-0.06	10	10%	-0.08	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.19	0.00	-0.11	6	14%	-0.03	5	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.17	0.00	-0.06	22	40%	-0.05	4	-0.06	8	62%	-0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.01	-0.09	11	72%	0.18	2	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	16	56%	0.05	0	0.00	9	78%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	77%	0.04	2	-0.01	3	67%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	8	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Zendon Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	83%	0.00	1	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Daniel Santiago	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	60%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	10	42%	-0.00	1	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	9	55%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	5	79%	0.02	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	6	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	1.7	27.4	15.7	29.2	2.4	32.3	133.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +41.4%

MIL +3.5%

ATL -3.6%

MIL +7.4%

MIL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	15.2	14.7	15.5	85.6	117.7	104.0
season	15.6	16.0		98.1	104.4
opponent	15.0	15.1		107.4	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.7	16.1	13.4	15.6	15.2
MIL	14.9	13.2	16.7	13.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Royal Ivey	35	34	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.21	-9	-21	12	14.6	15.5	-0.92	13.3	15.4	-2.15
Kevin Willis	6	7	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.08	-6	-24	18	15.8	15.1	0.69	12.3	14.8	-2.56
Obinna Ekezie	40	42	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.32	7	-37	44	14.7	15.5	-0.87	17.3	12.6	4.76
Donta Smith	44	44	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.10	-8	-22	14	14.0	16.2	-2.21	15.4	14.0	1.35
Tony Delk	45	42	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.42	-23	-7	-16	15.1	15.2	-0.14	14.0	15.1	-1.08
Jason Collier	46	43	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.63	-30	0	-30	15.6	14.8	0.85	12.6	16.3	-3.72
Josh Smith	47	48	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.32	-20	-10	-10	16.0	14.4	1.66	14.1	15.2	-1.02
Antoine Walker	81	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.29	-24	-6	-18	15.2	15.2	-0.08	14.7	14.5	0.19
Boris Diaw	56	56	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.13	-19	-11	-8	15.9	14.1	1.80	15.1	14.1	1.00
Josh Childress	85	86	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.05	-18	-12	-6	15.1	15.9	-0.83	15.0	11.5	3.52

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toni Kukoc	74	76	0.58	-0.08	0.65	-0.66	42	-12	54	14.2	16.2	-1.98	15.7	13.1	2.61
Desmond Mason	63	65	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.35	23	7	16	14.8	14.5	0.31	15.2	15.1	0.09
Zaza Pachulia	54	55	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.61	31	-1	32	13.5	16.1	-2.60	15.9	14.2	1.75
Mo Williams	55	55	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.23	2	28	-26	16.3	12.5	3.83	14.9	15.5	-0.60
Joe Smith	37	37	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.00	9	21	-12	16.8	13.3	3.46	15.6	14.9	0.75
Erick Strickland	54	53	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.15	13	17	-4	13.8	15.8	-2.01	15.2	15.2	-0.03
Mike James	55	56	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.39	21	9	12	13.5	16.2	-2.69	14.9	15.5	-0.57
Dan Gadzuric	28	28	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.02	6	24	-18	15.9	14.1	1.75	14.7	15.4	-0.71
Keith Van Horn	32	34	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.39	17	13	4	12.8	15.6	-2.72	15.2	15.2	0.08
Zendon Hamilton	14	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	37	-44	16.6	14.3	2.24	12.8	15.6	-2.79
Daniel Santiago	14	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	37	-44	16.6	14.3	2.24	12.8	15.6	-2.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 96, POR 127	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.62,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.83,0.89,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
MIL 80, POR 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.72,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
LAC 75, NJN 92	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.83,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%