NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	92		Excitement	4.5 [945]		MVP	David Wesley (HOU): +8.7%
Houston Rockets	105		Comeback	1.4 [995]		LVP	Tyson Chandler (CHI): -15.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Duhon	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.10	-0.00	0.05	8	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Piatkowski	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.02	8	69%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jared Reiner	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.01	0.04	12	57%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Adrian Griffin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	6	47%	-0.00	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Jannero Pargo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.10	0.00	-0.07	8	25%	-0.03	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	12	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	8	41%	-0.01	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Eddy Curry	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	11	40%	-0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Othella Harrington	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.17	-0.01	-0.03	13	33%	-0.11	2	-0.04	10	40%	-0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Wesley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	11	59%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	0.01	0.05	10	84%	0.11	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	75%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	6	43%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	17	52%	-0.02	0	0.00	12	75%	-0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	13	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Barrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	0.00	7	62%	-0.01	6	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.5	27.2	15.8	25.6	2.0	27.3	127.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +38.9%

HOU +3.3%

CHI -3.0%

HOU +12.9%

CHI -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	HOU	NBA	CHI	HOU	NBA
this game	15.0	16.2	15.5	98.9	114.1	104.0
season	15.1	16.0		100.1	104.2
opponent	15.8	15.4		100.6	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.3	16.5	14.2	15.1	15.0
HOU	15.1	16.3	17.1	16.2	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Reiner	14	14	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.22	10	-23	33	12.1	15.5	-3.42	17.7	15.9	1.83
Jannero Pargo	27	27	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.27	7	-20	27	13.4	15.6	-2.21	17.7	15.5	2.23
Andres Nocioni	36	33	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-11	9	12.9	16.3	-3.45	16.7	15.9	0.83
Eric Piatkowski	36	35	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.27	7	-20	27	14.8	15.1	-0.24	17.5	15.4	2.13
Adrian Griffin	7	7	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.05	-1	-12	11	7.0	15.6	-8.63	12.0	16.5	-4.51
Othella Harrington	29	31	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	-8	3	18.2	13.5	4.64	15.9	16.3	-0.44
Chris Duhon	48	51	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.10	-5	-8	3	16.3	13.6	2.76	15.8	16.7	-0.89
Ben Gordon	48	47	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.13	-16	3	-19	14.4	15.6	-1.12	15.3	17.0	-1.73
Luol Deng	36	37	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.16	-18	5	-23	17.1	13.6	3.52	15.9	16.3	-0.41
Tyson Chandler	66	64	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.11	-9	-4	-5	14.3	16.7	-2.48	16.3	15.9	0.39
Kirk Hinrich	73	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.11	-17	4	-21	14.9	15.3	-0.41	16.1	16.2	-0.07
Eddy Curry	45	45	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.06	-16	3	-19	16.4	13.6	2.84	15.6	16.7	-1.19

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Padgett	43	43	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.00	15	-2	17	15.7	16.6	-0.83	15.9	14.2	1.77
David Wesley	70	72	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.11	10	3	7	16.3	15.8	0.51	14.3	17.3	-3.04
Jon Barry	37	37	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.03	12	1	11	16.4	16.0	0.36	16.3	14.1	2.19
Dikembe Mutombo	35	36	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.09	6	7	-1	15.4	16.6	-1.28	14.1	15.5	-1.46
Rod Strickland	9	9	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.09	12	1	11	13.4	16.5	-3.01	14.3	15.0	-0.71
Yao Ming	57	56	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.01	7	6	1	16.6	15.4	1.28	15.8	13.8	1.98
Tracy McGrady	72	73	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.10	4	9	-5	16.2	16.1	0.02	15.1	14.5	0.55
Bob Sura	70	72	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	9	-5	16.3	15.7	0.63	15.5	13.3	2.19
Juwan Howard	49	51	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.13	-2	15	-17	16.6	15.7	0.83	13.9	16.2	-2.30
Ryan Bowen	5	4	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.07	0	13	-13	12.8	16.4	-3.56	13.0	15.1	-2.07
Andre Barrett	13	12	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.13	-3	16	-19	17.2	16.0	1.24	12.5	15.3	-2.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 101, HOU 121	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
SAS 73, ORL 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.74,0.7,0.61,0.76,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
MIA 76, TOR 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.85,0.93,0.91,0.83,0.86,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%