NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	87		Excitement	6.9 [467]		MVP	Antawn Jamison (WAS): +35.1%
Washington Wizards	95		Comeback	3.0 [748]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): -22.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.03	7	57%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.01	14	63%	0.15	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Massenburg	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.05	-0.00	3	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	19	51%	0.10	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Beno Udrih	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	0.02	7	21%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	15	44%	-0.07	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.04
Devin Brown	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	0.00	5	0%	-0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.12	0.25	0.02	24	66%	0.42	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.02
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	0.00	6	78%	0.10	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	4	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	9	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.15	-0.01	-0.03	8	20%	-0.09	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.18,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.17	-0.07	-0.02	28	39%	-0.09	4	-0.13	6	67%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	1.8	25.3	16.3	23.6	2.5	41.2	135.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +16.9%

WAS +15.5%

WAS +10.7%

WAS +5.7%

WAS +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	WAS	NBA	SAS	WAS	NBA
this game	17.7	15.1	15.5	98.9	108.0	104.0
season	16.3	14.7		105.8	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.6		105.5	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.7	19.8	17.9	15.4	17.7
WAS	16.6	13.0	14.9	15.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	22	20	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.04	1	-9	10	16.4	18.1	-1.67	16.1	14.7	1.40
Tony Massenburg	27	27	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.13	2	-10	12	15.5	18.6	-3.09	15.8	14.7	1.08
Robert Horry	33	32	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-3	-2	17.9	17.5	0.45	14.4	15.4	-0.99
Brent Barry	22	22	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.07	-7	-1	-6	15.6	18.3	-2.70	12.3	16.0	-3.67
Devin Brown	26	27	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.15	-1	-7	6	14.9	18.8	-3.88	15.2	15.0	0.22
Manu Ginobili	65	63	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.18	-2	-6	4	17.4	18.4	-1.05	14.8	15.8	-1.02
Malik Rose	53	55	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.34	-2	-6	4	17.9	17.3	0.67	15.7	14.0	1.66
Rasho Nesterovic	60	61	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.14	-10	2	-12	18.8	15.1	3.74	14.7	15.8	-1.08
Bruce Bowen	66	65	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.24	-7	-1	-6	19.1	13.3	5.85	16.0	12.4	3.57
Tony Parker	66	68	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.23	-9	1	-10	18.1	16.4	1.67	14.7	16.1	-1.40

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gilbert Arenas	82	81	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.25	11	-3	14	15.0	16.3	-1.36	17.9	14.4	3.51
Antawn Jamison	85	85	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.27	8	0	8	15.0	16.3	-1.31	17.5	22.7	-5.18
Juan Dixon	51	54	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.00	17	-9	26	13.3	17.5	-4.17	17.1	18.5	-1.32
Etan Thomas	43	44	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.21	10	-2	12	15.2	15.0	0.19	18.5	16.8	1.64
Michael Ruffin	46	46	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.06	9	-1	10	14.2	16.0	-1.83	17.2	18.2	-1.02
Jarvis Hayes	55	54	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.35	-9	17	-26	16.1	13.3	2.78	16.8	19.0	-2.14
Jared Jeffries	38	37	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.09	-2	10	-12	16.4	14.1	2.33	18.3	17.2	1.05
Brendan Haywood	40	39	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.09	-4	12	-16	15.8	14.5	1.34	18.4	17.1	1.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.35,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.74,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.67,0.8,0.85,0.97,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 99, GSW 103	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.69,0.86,0.79,0.84,0.92,1	94.6%
WAS 76, MEM 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.94,0.98,1,1	93.6%
PHI 89, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.39,0.34,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.9,0.81,0.94,0.95,1	93.5%