NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	97		Excitement	4.9 [886]		MVP	Michael Doleac (MIA): +14.9%
Miami Heat	108		Comeback	1.0 [1298]		LVP	Andres Nocioni (CHI): -12.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddy Curry	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	13	56%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Adrian Griffin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Piatkowski	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	12	64%	0.06	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Tyson Chandler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	4	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Chris Duhon	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.04	5	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jared Reiner	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	5	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Othella Harrington	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	19	37%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ben Gordon	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.07	-0.02	0.13	17	66%	0.00	3	-0.08	4	50%	0.02
Andres Nocioni	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	-0.00	5	31%	-0.08	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.03	0.01	10	80%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	0.01	0.06	10	62%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	5	33%	-0.02	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	6	50%	0.03	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.10	0.02	-0.03	18	51%	0.03	4	-0.07	13	85%	0.02
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	0.00	-0.02	17	51%	-0.03	3	-0.05	17	35%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	3.4	31.3	15.7	30.5	2.6	35.5	144.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +31.6%

MIA +8.6%

CHI -5.6%

MIA +11.6%

MIA +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	13.3	14.5	15.5	94.2	103.8	104.0
season	15.1	15.7		100.1	107.9
opponent	15.5	15.4		101.1	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.2	13.9	13.2	12.2	13.3
MIA	14.0	15.5	14.5	14.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Reiner	39	38	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.10	-5	-6	1	12.9	13.6	-0.77	14.3	14.6	-0.33
Eric Piatkowski	21	21	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.10	2	-13	15	11.1	13.9	-2.83	13.9	14.6	-0.77
Luol Deng	72	72	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.22	5	-16	21	12.2	16.1	-3.98	14.9	13.4	1.54
Othella Harrington	24	23	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-9	7	14.7	12.9	1.77	15.4	14.2	1.24
Adrian Griffin	10	9	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.02	-3	-8	5	12.3	13.5	-1.16	13.9	14.5	-0.64
Ben Gordon	61	64	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.36	4	-15	19	13.6	13.0	0.63	14.9	13.8	1.09
Kirk Hinrich	82	83	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.04	-11	0	-11	13.7	12.0	1.64	14.1	15.9	-1.80
Tyson Chandler	61	64	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.13	-6	-5	-1	12.9	14.0	-1.06	14.6	14.2	0.36
Chris Duhon	50	49	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.14	-7	-4	-3	13.0	13.7	-0.72	15.2	13.8	1.35
Eddy Curry	56	58	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.13	-11	0	-11	14.6	11.8	2.83	14.3	14.7	-0.36
Andres Nocioni	39	39	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.10	-21	10	-31	14.9	12.4	2.45	12.9	15.4	-2.52

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keyon Dooling	67	65	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.05	20	-9	29	13.9	15.4	-1.49	13.5	13.1	0.35
Eddie Jones	78	79	0.59	-0.09	0.67	-0.09	23	-12	35	14.7	13.8	0.83	13.6	12.5	1.05
Shaquille O'Neal	66	66	0.56	-0.06	0.61	-0.03	20	-9	29	14.1	15.2	-1.08	14.4	11.4	2.99
Rasual Butler	47	44	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.21	5	6	-1	14.4	14.5	-0.04	13.6	13.1	0.50
Michael Doleac	58	56	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.14	7	4	3	15.3	13.5	1.78	12.7	14.1	-1.35
Udonis Haslem	68	69	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.22	-1	12	-13	14.6	14.3	0.25	12.9	14.2	-1.32
Dwyane Wade	78	78	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.01	2	9	-7	14.3	15.1	-0.86	13.4	13.1	0.36
Dorell Wright	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	19	-27	14.8	14.5	0.35	5.6	13.7	-8.14
Wang Zhi-zhi	16	15	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	15	-19	12.9	14.8	-1.89	12.9	13.4	-0.49
Damon Jones	37	38	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.12	-9	20	-29	15.4	13.9	1.49	13.1	13.5	-0.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.8,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.81,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 77, SAS 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.74,0.71,0.59,0.52,0.62,0.64,0.87,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
CLE 91, TOR 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.61,0.68,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.81,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.88,0.82,0.71,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.99,1,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.3%
BOS 108, IND 115	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.86,0.8,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.74,0.7,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.85,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.99,1	94.1%